Europe should prepare for Trump II – Commerzbank
Source Fxstreet
Donald Trump has at least a good chance of a second term in office. Forward-looking politics should prepare for this, strategists at Commerzbank report.
It cannot be said that there would be a U-turn in US policy under Trump
Under President Trump, the Americans are unlikely to continue to support Ukraine to the current extent. The Europeans will therefore have to shoulder a greater burden. This also applies to defense spending as a whole. The US position here is likely to be that it is primarily the responsibility of the European NATO members to invest sufficiently in protection against Russia. The pressure to raise defense budgets will continue to increase. So far, many countries have struggled to even reach NATO's 2% target.
Donald Trump's preference for a robust foreign trade policy based on tariffs, among other things, could lead to a resurgence of trade disputes between the US and the EU.
However, it cannot be said that there would be a U-turn in US policy under Trump. Rather, he would probably only accelerate trends that are already in place; a certain move away from Europe and an increased US focus on the Asian region is to be expected with any future administration. The same applies to the push for more protectionism. This enjoys broad bipartisan support. However, President Trump would probably ensure that Europeans can no longer turn a blind eye to these developments.
Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Gold climbed higher on Friday, marking its strongest weekly performance in a month, as traders weighed the impact of a data backlog following the end of the US government's extended shutdown. Silver also moved upward.
Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and Ripple (XRP) trade in red on Friday after correcting more than 5%, 10% and 2%, respectively, so far this week.
Bitcoin briefly loses 2025 gains as crypto plunges over the weekend.Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline this weekend, briefly erasing its 2025 gains and dipping below its year-opening value of $93,507. The cryptocurrency fell to a low of $93,029 on Sunday, representing a 25% drop from its all-time high in October. Although it has rebounded slightly to around $94,209, the pressures on the market remain significant.
The downturn occurred despite the reopening of the U.S. government on Thursday, which many had hoped would provide essential support for crypto markets. This year initially appeared promising for cryptocurrencies, particularly after the inauguration of President Donald Trump, who has established the most pro-crypto administration thus far. However, ongoing political tensions—including Trump's tariff strategies and the recent government shutdown, lasting a historic 43 days—have contributed to several rapid price pullbacks for Bitcoin throughout the year.
Market dynamics are also being influenced by Bitcoin whales—investors holding large amounts of Bitcoin—who have been offloading portions of their assets, consequently stalling price rallies even as positive regulatory developments emerge. Despite these sell-offs, analysts from Glassnode argue that this behavior aligns with typical patterns seen among long-term investors during the concluding stages of bull markets, suggesting it is not indicative of a mass exodus.
Notably, Bitcoin is not alone in its struggles, as Ethereum and Solana have also recorded declines of 7.95% and 28.3%, respectively, since the start of the year, while numerous altcoins have faced even steeper losses.
Looking ahead, questions linger regarding the viability of the four-year cycle thesis, particularly given the increasing institutional support and regulatory frameworks now in place in the crypto landscape. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, remains optimistic, suggesting a potential Bitcoin resurgence in 2026 driven by the “debasement trade” thesis and a broader trend toward increased adoption of stablecoins, tokenization, and decentralized finance. Hougan emphasized the soundness of the underlying fundamentals, pointing to a positive outlook for the sector in the longer term.
Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline this weekend, briefly erasing its 2025 gains and dipping below its year-opening value of $93,507. The cryptocurrency fell to a low of $93,029 on Sunday, representing a 25% drop from its all-time high in October. Although it has rebounded slightly to around $94,209, the pressures on the market remain significant.
The downturn occurred despite the reopening of the U.S. government on Thursday, which many had hoped would provide essential support for crypto markets. This year initially appeared promising for cryptocurrencies, particularly after the inauguration of President Donald Trump, who has established the most pro-crypto administration thus far. However, ongoing political tensions—including Trump's tariff strategies and the recent government shutdown, lasting a historic 43 days—have contributed to several rapid price pullbacks for Bitcoin throughout the year.
Market dynamics are also being influenced by Bitcoin whales—investors holding large amounts of Bitcoin—who have been offloading portions of their assets, consequently stalling price rallies even as positive regulatory developments emerge. Despite these sell-offs, analysts from Glassnode argue that this behavior aligns with typical patterns seen among long-term investors during the concluding stages of bull markets, suggesting it is not indicative of a mass exodus.
Notably, Bitcoin is not alone in its struggles, as Ethereum and Solana have also recorded declines of 7.95% and 28.3%, respectively, since the start of the year, while numerous altcoins have faced even steeper losses.
Looking ahead, questions linger regarding the viability of the four-year cycle thesis, particularly given the increasing institutional support and regulatory frameworks now in place in the crypto landscape. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, remains optimistic, suggesting a potential Bitcoin resurgence in 2026 driven by the “debasement trade” thesis and a broader trend toward increased adoption of stablecoins, tokenization, and decentralized finance. Hougan emphasized the soundness of the underlying fundamentals, pointing to a positive outlook for the sector in the longer term.
