US Elections: Trump victory with split Congressional control may boost equities – TDS
Source Fxstreet
The US election season is once again upon us. What will markets focus on? Strategists at TD Securities analyze how markets could be impacted by elections.
Trump remains heavily favored for the 2024 presidential run
While other candidates remain in the race, we expect the election to be a rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.
Our current baseline scenario is that Donald Trump wins the presidency in 2024 and that Republicans recapture the Senate, though control of the House may go to the Democrats by a tight margin.
Markets are likely to focus on tax/growth, deficit, regulation, geopolitical, and tariff implications in their reaction to the election. Our base case view of a Trump victory with split Congressional control should push term premium higher and may boost equities amid expectations that corporate taxes remain low.
Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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China's factories are pricing in 5.7%. Its shoppers are pricing in 0.7%.China's October PPI rose 5.7% year on year, the fastest since June 2022, while CPI slowed to 0.7% and core CPI to 0.8%. Input prices rose faster than factory-gate prices, squeezing mid-stream margins by roughly five percentage points. The Hang Seng fell 0.13% on a day the S&P 500 rose 2.35%, the only major market to sit out the risk-on session.
China's October PPI rose 5.7% year on year, the fastest since June 2022, while CPI slowed to 0.7% and core CPI to 0.8%. Input prices rose faster than factory-gate prices, squeezing mid-stream margins by roughly five percentage points. The Hang Seng fell 0.13% on a day the S&P 500 rose 2.35%, the only major market to sit out the risk-on session.
Get the latest gold price analysis, forex gold insights, and XAU/USD analysis for November 11, 2026. Read on for the details.
Bitcoin lost its 200-day average — but the exit started three sessions before the CPIBitcoin fell 2.5% to about $73,400 on 11 November, an 11-week low, breaking its 200-day moving average near $73,100. The 24-hour liquidation tally reached $632 to $705 million, roughly 82% of it longs. But spot ETF outflows began three sessions earlier and USDT's market cap has shrunk $6.6 billion in 60 days — the leveraged length left before the inflation print did. A double top at 81,890 and 81,080 leaves a measured target of 69,366.
Bitcoin fell 2.5% to about $73,400 on 11 November, an 11-week low, breaking its 200-day moving average near $73,100. The 24-hour liquidation tally reached $632 to $705 million, roughly 82% of it longs. But spot ETF outflows began three sessions earlier and USDT's market cap has shrunk $6.6 billion in 60 days — the leveraged length left before the inflation print did. A double top at 81,890 and 81,080 leaves a measured target of 69,366.
On November 12, gold prices (XAUUSD) extended their recent losses, falling further below $4,000 in early Asian trading to hit an intraday low near $3,968, marking a third consecutive day
Gold closed below $4,000 again — the ETF crowd and central banks stayed, the momentum money leftSpot gold is trading near $3,999, its third consecutive lower daily low, after a 5.00% 10-year yield and a 102.85 dollar index raised the odds of a December hike to 87%. But the selling is not coming from the strategic holders: managed-money net longs fell to 324 tonnes, a 21-week low, and Goldman Sachs attributes roughly 95% of five weeks of selling to non-reportable positions. ETFs still hold a record 4,256 tonnes and central banks bought 321 tonnes in Q3. The table below sets the triggers, directions and levels.
Spot gold is trading near $3,999, its third consecutive lower daily low, after a 5.00% 10-year yield and a 102.85 dollar index raised the odds of a December hike to 87%. But the selling is not coming from the strategic holders: managed-money net longs fell to 324 tonnes, a 21-week low, and Goldman Sachs attributes roughly 95% of five weeks of selling to non-reportable positions. ETFs still hold a record 4,256 tonnes and central banks bought 321 tonnes in Q3. The table below sets the triggers, directions and levels.
