ECB Preview: Three scenarios and their implications for EUR/USD – TDS

Economists at TD Securities discuss the European Central Bank (ECB) Interest Rate Decision and their implications for the EUR/USD pair.

Base Case (65%)

The ECB delivers another hold and makes no major changes to the press statement. The Governing Council emphasizes its broad reaction function and reiterates the importance of economic data in determining the ECB's policy stance. President Lagarde suggests that cuts are likely to come around the summer. That said, the President makes it clear that the exact timing is still very much up in the air, and will ultimately be decided by the data. EUR/USD -0.15%.

Hawkish (30%)

In a hawkish turn, President Lagarde pushes back hard against discussions about the potential timing of rate cuts. Lagarde argues that cuts will come, probably some time this year, and while market pricing looks too dovish, it is too early to comment on when cuts are likely to come. While inflation developments have been promising, Lagarde stresses that the tight labour market adds upside risks to the policy outlook. EUR/USD +0.75%.

Dovish (5%)

Despite recently pushing back against market expectations for spring cuts, President Lagarde fails to do so at the press conference – seemingly offering some credibility to market bets. EUR/USD -0.50%.