Macklem speech: Important not to give a false sense of precision regarding timing of a rate cut

Source Fxstreet

Tiff Macklem, Governor of the Bank of Canada (BoC), and Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers explain the BoC decision to leave the interest rate unchanged at 5% after the January policy meeting and respond to questions from the press.

Key quotes

"Inflation is still somewhat broad-based and that's why we're concerned about the persistence of underlying inflation

"It's important that we don't give Canadians a false sense of precision as regards the timing of a rate cut."

"If governments were to add more spending on top of what they've already planned for this year, it certainly could start getting in the way of trying to bring inflation down to 2% target."

"We didn't spend a lot of time talking about hikes this time."

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
placeholder
Gold ends three-week slide at the $4,400 line — eight straight days of ETF inflows vs a 5% 10-year and a 100 dollarSpot gold closed Friday at $4,378.39, up 0.84% on the day and about 0.8% for the week — its first weekly gain in four weeks — with the intraday high of $4,399.67 leaving it 33 cents shy of the $4,400 line. Gold ETFs have now logged eight straight sessions of inflows, but with the 10-year back above 5% and the dollar index near 100, here is what decides whether this is a reversal or a bounce.
Author  Suzie
Sep 20, Sun
Spot gold closed Friday at $4,378.39, up 0.84% on the day and about 0.8% for the week — its first weekly gain in four weeks — with the intraday high of $4,399.67 leaving it 33 cents shy of the $4,400 line. Gold ETFs have now logged eight straight sessions of inflows, but with the 10-year back above 5% and the dollar index near 100, here is what decides whether this is a reversal or a bounce.
placeholder
October hike odds climb toward 60% as Goldman and BofA both flip — what Warsh's "dose of accommodation" really changedRate futures now price roughly 55% to 62% for a 25bp hike at the October 27-28 FOMC, up from about 30% before Chair Warsh's post-meeting framing that the Fed is merely "removing some accommodation." Goldman Sachs has added an October hike to its forecast and Bank of America now sees moves in both October and December. Here is the repricing, the language behind it, and the two data points that decide it.
Author  Irene Q.
Sep 23, Wed
Rate futures now price roughly 55% to 62% for a 25bp hike at the October 27-28 FOMC, up from about 30% before Chair Warsh's post-meeting framing that the Fed is merely "removing some accommodation." Goldman Sachs has added an October hike to its forecast and Bank of America now sees moves in both October and December. Here is the repricing, the language behind it, and the two data points that decide it.
placeholder
US input costs rose at the fastest pace in four years — the September flash PMI beat is an inflation story, not a growth storyUS September flash PMIs came in far above expectations, with the composite at 58.4, a five-year high. But the detail that moved markets was input cost inflation at its fastest since October 2022, driven by fuel, transport and supply shortages. Brent is back above $100 and the 10-year Treasury yield has hit its highest since 2007.
Author  Suzie
Sep 24, Thu
US September flash PMIs came in far above expectations, with the composite at 58.4, a five-year high. But the detail that moved markets was input cost inflation at its fastest since October 2022, driven by fuel, transport and supply shortages. Brent is back above $100 and the 10-year Treasury yield has hit its highest since 2007.
placeholder
Brent edges toward $99 as Trump rejects Iran's Hormuz proposal — why the war-risk premium won't rebuildBrent crude rose 0.92% to $98.51 and WTI gained 1.15% to $93.51 after President Trump rejected Iran's seven-day proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. But both benchmarks remain about 12% below their early-September highs, because supply never actually stopped. Hormuz flows ran at 33.7 million barrels this week, in line with the prior week, and Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline restarted on September 22.
Author  Suzie
22 hours ago
Brent crude rose 0.92% to $98.51 and WTI gained 1.15% to $93.51 after President Trump rejected Iran's seven-day proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. But both benchmarks remain about 12% below their early-September highs, because supply never actually stopped. Hormuz flows ran at 33.7 million barrels this week, in line with the prior week, and Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline restarted on September 22.
placeholder
Four jobs reports in five days: what JOLTS, ADP, claims and the September payrolls mean for the October Fed decisionThe US labour market faces its densest data week of the month. JOLTS job openings land Tuesday (7.2 million expected), ADP on Wednesday (70,000 expected), initial claims on Thursday and the September non-farm payrolls on Friday (100,000 expected, down from 162,000). Markets price a 64%-70% chance of another quarter-point Fed hike on October 28. The dollar index sits at 100.77 and the S&P 500 at 7,729.8.
Author  Mitrade
22 hours ago
The US labour market faces its densest data week of the month. JOLTS job openings land Tuesday (7.2 million expected), ADP on Wednesday (70,000 expected), initial claims on Thursday and the September non-farm payrolls on Friday (100,000 expected, down from 162,000). Markets price a 64%-70% chance of another quarter-point Fed hike on October 28. The dollar index sits at 100.77 and the S&P 500 at 7,729.8.
goTop
quote