PMI numbers settling in one area could dictate the fate of the currency in the medium term – Commerzbank

Today, we have the first estimates of the purchasing managers' indices from the Eurozone, the UK and the US on the agenda. Economists at Commerzbank analyze the relevance of today's PMIs for the respective currency.

The UK and US indices are likely to remain in expansionary territory above the 50 mark

Our economists expect only a slight rebound for the Eurozone (but still in recessionary territory), while the UK and US indices are likely to remain in expansionary territory above the 50 mark. In practice, however, the numbers are unlikely to change much from December.

Unless the figures come as a clear surprise (which has happened several times in recent months), this would not really be worth mentioning. Nevertheless, some interesting conclusions can be drawn. A single surprise may not make much difference in the medium term. However, if the numbers settle in one area (whether in recession or expansion), then the chances of a recession or clear upswing naturally increase. And depending on the outcome, this is good or bad for the currency in the medium term.

Each additional number in recessionary or expansionary territory increases the probability of a recession or solid economic growth, but the probability does not rise to 1. Therefore, while it should be positive for the Pound and the USD in the medium term if today's numbers are solid again, ultimately it is the full spectrum of economic data that counts. And in the short term, whether the numbers surprise to the upside or the downside is more important today anyway.