Does the vice president matter? – UBS

Former US President Trump’s selection of Senator Vance as his running mate is not immediately market moving but it is market relevant, UBS macro analyst Paul Donovan notes.

US retail sales set to be lower

“In a television interview, Former US President Trump’s selection of Senator Vance identified China as the US’s greatest threat. Markets have been inclined to think that Trump would not really tax US consumers who buy goods partially made overseas as aggressively as they threaten—but the rhetoric suggests tariff threats may be serious.”

“June US retail sales data are released. Price changes matter, as this is a value measure. Disinflation, deflation, a cyber-attack on auto dealers, strains for lower-income households, and the shift to spending on services suggest a lower number. US consumers’ relentless hedonism suggests something not too low.”

“French President Macron is expected to start proceedings to establish a caretaker government. Meanwhile, the far-left has broken off negotiations with other parties in the Nouveau Front Populaire. This all points to fiscal inertia—no radical fiscal plans, but no attempt to get France onto a sustainable fiscal path.”