IMF raises China’s 2025 economic growth forecast to 5.0% from 4.8%

In its latest review report on the Chinese economy published on Wednesday, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised the dragon nation’s economic growth for this year and the next.

Key highlights

China's low inflation relative to trading partners has led to real exchange rate depreciation.

China's key policy priority is to transition to a consumption-led growth model.

China should transition away from an over reliance on exports and investment with greater urgency.

Raises China’s 2026 economic growth forecast to 4.5% from 4.2%.

Raises China’s 2025 economic growth forecast to 5.0% from 4.8%.

Upgrade attributed to macroeconomic stimulus, lower-than expected tariffs on Chinese goods.

Advises balance sheet cleanup in the general government, property and financial sectors.

Advises more urgent and forceful expansionary macroeconomic policies, reforms to reduce elevated household savings.

Warns imbalances in China’s economy remain significant, urges shift to consumption-led model.