Fed to start cutting rates in July – ABN Amro
Source Fxstreet
Analysts at ABN Amro share an update to their Federal Reserve (Fed) policy outlook following the latest inflation data.
Total of three 25bp cuts expected in 2024
"We now expect the Fed to start cutting rates in July (previously June), with a pause in September, and a total of three 25bp cuts expected in 2024 (previously five). Rates are expected to fall to the estimated neutral level of 3% by November 2025."
"We do not think the Fed is wedded to changing policy in quarterly projection months, and nor do we think the election timing is a significant factor. Our ECB view is unchanged; it would take a much sharper move in the euro to affect ECB cuts. Rates forecast update: The change in Fed view raises our near-term short-end yield forecasts for the US, but long-end yield forecasts are much less impacted. Our euro rates forecasts are mostly unchanged."
Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Recommended Articles
Gold ends three-week slide at the $4,400 line — eight straight days of ETF inflows vs a 5% 10-year and a 100 dollarSpot gold closed Friday at $4,378.39, up 0.84% on the day and about 0.8% for the week — its first weekly gain in four weeks — with the intraday high of $4,399.67 leaving it 33 cents shy of the $4,400 line. Gold ETFs have now logged eight straight sessions of inflows, but with the 10-year back above 5% and the dollar index near 100, here is what decides whether this is a reversal or a bounce.
Spot gold closed Friday at $4,378.39, up 0.84% on the day and about 0.8% for the week — its first weekly gain in four weeks — with the intraday high of $4,399.67 leaving it 33 cents shy of the $4,400 line. Gold ETFs have now logged eight straight sessions of inflows, but with the 10-year back above 5% and the dollar index near 100, here is what decides whether this is a reversal or a bounce.
October hike odds climb toward 60% as Goldman and BofA both flip — what Warsh's "dose of accommodation" really changedRate futures now price roughly 55% to 62% for a 25bp hike at the October 27-28 FOMC, up from about 30% before Chair Warsh's post-meeting framing that the Fed is merely "removing some accommodation." Goldman Sachs has added an October hike to its forecast and Bank of America now sees moves in both October and December. Here is the repricing, the language behind it, and the two data points that decide it.
Rate futures now price roughly 55% to 62% for a 25bp hike at the October 27-28 FOMC, up from about 30% before Chair Warsh's post-meeting framing that the Fed is merely "removing some accommodation." Goldman Sachs has added an October hike to its forecast and Bank of America now sees moves in both October and December. Here is the repricing, the language behind it, and the two data points that decide it.
Gold holds steady below $4,150 amid elevated US yields Gold price (XAU/USD) trades on a flat note near $4,140 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. Pressure from a stronger US Dollar (USD) and elevated US Treasury yields was offset by reduced expectations of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike this month.
Gold price (XAU/USD) trades on a flat note near $4,140 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. Pressure from a stronger US Dollar (USD) and elevated US Treasury yields was offset by reduced expectations of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike this month.
WTI rises to near $89.50 as Middle East supply threats offset Persian Gulf recoveryWest Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price extends its gains for the second successive day, trading around $89.50 per barrel during the Asian hours on Wednesday. Crude oil climbed as persistent risks to Middle East energy flows overshadowed signs of rising supply from the region.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price extends its gains for the second successive day, trading around $89.50 per barrel during the Asian hours on Wednesday. Crude oil climbed as persistent risks to Middle East energy flows overshadowed signs of rising supply from the region.
Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD retraces gains and nears two-month lows at $4,104Gold (XAU/USD) retraces Tuesday’s gains on Wednesday and resumes its broader bearish trend, with the US Dollar (USD) appreciating across the board, as investors brace for the release of the minutes of the latest Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting.
Gold (XAU/USD) retraces Tuesday’s gains on Wednesday and resumes its broader bearish trend, with the US Dollar (USD) appreciating across the board, as investors brace for the release of the minutes of the latest Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting.
