With markets focused on a September Fed rate cut, attention is shifting to other factors that could lend support to the dollar. China’s central bank has paused its push for a stronger renminbi, while the prospect of new US tariffs on BRICS nations threatens to pressure emerging-market currencies, where investors remain heavily exposed, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.
"Away from the US data and the expected Fed 25bp rate cut on 17 September, we're looking at two factors that could provide the dollar with some support. The first is a mini-reversal of last week. The People's Bank of China has now fixed USD/CNY for the last couple of days."
"Our idea of a discrete, managed appreciation in the renminbi seems to have run its course for the time being. One would not be surprised either to hear of Washington levelling new tariffs at BRICS nations after this week's show of power in Beijing and the BRICS virtual summit next week to discuss US tariffs."
"This could be slightly negative for EM currencies as a whole, where global investors are overweight."