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    Good upside potential for commodity currencies – ING

    Source Fxstreet
    Mar 4, 2024 15:59

    Economists at ING remain positive on commodity currencies.

    MXN and BRL may well prove resilient despite ongoing rate-cutting cycles

    In the G10 space, we continue to see good upside potential for commodity currencies, in particular, the undervalued Norwegian Krone, Aussie Dollar and New Zealand Dollar.

    In emerging markets, the Chinese Yuan should continue to be driven by China-specific factors until US rates move decisively lower and allow USD/CNY to decline sustainably. The upcoming Two Sessions is a key risk event for the Yuan and China-sensitive currencies.

    In Latam, the Mexican Peso and Brazilian Real may well prove resilient despite ongoing rate-cutting cycles; while in the CEE region, we expect the paths of the Polish Zloty (strong) and Hungarian Forint (weak) to keep diverging.

    The key risks to our bearish Dollar view are a potential USD positive/EM negative re-election of Donald Trump, or – from a purely macro perspective – prolonged resilience in US inflation and consequent further delay in Fed easing.

     

    Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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    FX option expiries for Mar 26 NY cutFX option expiries for Mar 26 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.0785 2b 1.0870 4.1b 1.0925 2.9b - GBP/USD: GBP amounts 1.2685 983m - USD/JPY: USD amounts 151.00 529m 151.25 632m - AUD/USD: AUD amounts 0.6500 726m 0.6545 3.2b - NZD/USD: NZD amounts 0.6170 695m .
    Source  Fxstreet
    FX option expiries for Mar 26 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.0785 2b 1.0870 4.1b 1.0925 2.9b - GBP/USD: GBP amounts 1.2685 983m - USD/JPY: USD amounts 151.00 529m 151.25 632m - AUD/USD: AUD amounts 0.6500 726m 0.6545 3.2b - NZD/USD: NZD amounts 0.6170 695m .
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    FX option expiries for Mar 12 NY cutFX option expiries for Mar 12 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below.
    Source  Fxstreet
    FX option expiries for Mar 12 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below.
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    FX option expiries for Feb 13 NY cutFX option expiries for Feb 13 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below.
    Source  Fxstreet
    FX option expiries for Feb 13 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below.
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