USD/CNH: PBoC pushes to guide USD/CNH bias and direction – OCBC
Source Fxstreet
USD/CNH continues to ease away from recent high as policymakers keep a strong grip on the daily fix, setting it even lower at 7.1879 vs. 7.1934 (yesterday). Pair was last at 7.2736.
Corrective pullback not ruled out
“USD/CNH eased away from recent high as policymakers keep a strong grip on the daily fix, setting it even lower at 7.1879 vs. 7.1934 (yesterday). This is despite USD trading largely rangebound.”
“Fixing pattern continues to suggest that PBoC is doing whatever it takes to not only restraint the RMB from over-weakening but also to guide its bias and direction. Tariff may hurt RMB when it happens but that may be a story for 2025 after Trump inauguration. Meantime, we would keep a look out for the CEWC meeting on 11-12 Dec.”
“Daily momentum is flat while RSI shows signs of turning from near-overbought conditions. Corrective pullback not ruled out. Support here at 7.2460 (21 DMA). Resistance at 7.32, 7.3450 levels.”
Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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The downturn occurred despite the reopening of the U.S. government on Thursday, which many had hoped would provide essential support for crypto markets. This year initially appeared promising for cryptocurrencies, particularly after the inauguration of President Donald Trump, who has established the most pro-crypto administration thus far. However, ongoing political tensions—including Trump's tariff strategies and the recent government shutdown, lasting a historic 43 days—have contributed to several rapid price pullbacks for Bitcoin throughout the year.
Market dynamics are also being influenced by Bitcoin whales—investors holding large amounts of Bitcoin—who have been offloading portions of their assets, consequently stalling price rallies even as positive regulatory developments emerge. Despite these sell-offs, analysts from Glassnode argue that this behavior aligns with typical patterns seen among long-term investors during the concluding stages of bull markets, suggesting it is not indicative of a mass exodus.
Notably, Bitcoin is not alone in its struggles, as Ethereum and Solana have also recorded declines of 7.95% and 28.3%, respectively, since the start of the year, while numerous altcoins have faced even steeper losses.
Looking ahead, questions linger regarding the viability of the four-year cycle thesis, particularly given the increasing institutional support and regulatory frameworks now in place in the crypto landscape. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, remains optimistic, suggesting a potential Bitcoin resurgence in 2026 driven by the “debasement trade” thesis and a broader trend toward increased adoption of stablecoins, tokenization, and decentralized finance. Hougan emphasized the soundness of the underlying fundamentals, pointing to a positive outlook for the sector in the longer term.
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