USD/CNH: A sustained break below 7.1700 is imminent – UOB Group

The US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade in a sideways range of 7.1700/7.1880. Downward momentum is fading, and the likelihood of USD revisiting the 7.0635 support level has diminished, UOB Group FX strategists Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

A move below 7.1700 is possible near term

24-HOUR VIEW: “Last Friday, USD traded sideways before closing largely unchanged. Yesterday (Monday), we held the view that ‘further sideways trading seems likely, probably in a range of 7.1620/7.1900.’ Our view of sideways trading was not wrong, even though USD traded in a narrow range of 7.1728/7.1854, again closing largely unchanged (7.1783, +0.05%). The price action provides no fresh clues. Today, we continue to expect USD to trade sideways, likely in a range of 7.1700/7.1880.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “We have held a negative USD view since late last month (as annotated in the chart below). After USD fell sharply to 7.0636 and rebounded, in our update from last Tuesday (06 Aug, spot at 7.1400), we highlighted that ‘while further USD weakness is not ruled out, the low near 7.0635 is solid support now.’ We added, ‘a breach of 7.2000 would mean that the weakness has stabilised.’ USD traded sideways over the past several days, and we noted yesterday (12 Aug, spot at 7.1770) that ‘downward momentum is fading, and the likelihood of USD breaking below 7.0635 has diminished.’ There is no change in our view.”