US Dollar sees mild gains ahead of FOMC meeting

Source Fxstreet
Mar 18, 2024 16:47
  • The DXY started the week with mild gains.
  • All eyes are set on Wednesday’s FOMC meeting.
  • No relevant reports were released on Monday.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) trades at 103.55 on Monday, reflecting minor gains. Rising US Treasury yields also favored the favorable start of the week. All eyes are now on the Federal Reserve (Fed) decision on Wednesday and the updated economic projections.

The US economy is at a pivotal juncture as inflation remains sticky, while weak labor market data seem to be balancing investor expectations on the Fed’s timing for beginning the easing cycle. As for now, the first cut is seen in June.

Daily digest market movers: DXY rises on quiet Monday on the back of rising US Treasury yields

  • The Federal Reserve is projected to exercise patience before implementing policy easing, considering that there seem to be signs of US inflation progress slowing down.  
  • At present, the markets are predicting a 65% chance of a rate cut in June, with a full rate cut already considered in the projections for the July meeting.
  • The updated Dot Plots will provide markets with additional guidance.
  • Despite a recent dovish testimony by Powell, the majority of officials from the Federal Reserve express caution regarding premature monetary easing.
  • US Treasury bond yields are rising with trading figures clocking in at 4.75% for the 2-year yield, 4.35% for the 5-year yield, and 4.33% for the 10-year yield.

DXY technical analysis: DXY confronts bearish disposition, while still suggesting a glimmer of hope

In terms of the current technical outlook, the DXY's momentum seems to be shifting in favor of bulls. The Relative Strength Index (RSI)  jumped above 50, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) exhibits decreasing red bars, demonstrating a declining negative momentum. 
 
That being said, the Dollar Index still resides below the 20,100 and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). This shows the persisting dominance of bearish sentiment in a broader context. Despite indications of bulls gaining some ground, the current position suggests that selling power remains decidedly stronger.
 
 
 
 
 

 

US Dollar FAQs

What is the US Dollar?

The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022.
Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.

How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar?

The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.

What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar?

In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.

What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar?

Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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