US CPI Preview: USD should benefit if inflation figures are strong again – Commerzbank

Source Fxstreet

It should not be too difficult to identify the key event for the FX market today: The new inflation figures from the US are on the agenda. Economists at Commerzbank analyze the US Dollar outlook ahead of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report.

US inflation figures likely to support the hawkish voices on the FOMC

I would still be a little cautious about following the recent weakness of the Dollar too much. After all, we have seen the first cracks in the story of the US soft landing. And that certainly justifies some dollar weakness. Ultimately, however, the Fed is likely to be driven by inflation. And today's figures are more likely to support the hawkish voices on the FOMC. 

If today's figures are strong again, the market therefore may push back its rate cut expectations a bit. The USD should benefit from this.

 

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
placeholder
Dollar holds above 100 near a 3-month high — three Fed speakers and a $69 billion auction land tonightThe dollar index closed at 100.43 on Monday, its highest close since late July, after a weekly gain of about 1% — the best in more than three months — and is holding above the 100.00 handle in Asia. Three Fed officials speak tonight alongside a $69 billion two-year note auction, the first leg of $183 billion of Treasury supply this week.
Author  Suzie
Sep 22, Tue
The dollar index closed at 100.43 on Monday, its highest close since late July, after a weekly gain of about 1% — the best in more than three months — and is holding above the 100.00 handle in Asia. Three Fed officials speak tonight alongside a $69 billion two-year note auction, the first leg of $183 billion of Treasury supply this week.
placeholder
October hike odds climb toward 60% as Goldman and BofA both flip — what Warsh's "dose of accommodation" really changedRate futures now price roughly 55% to 62% for a 25bp hike at the October 27-28 FOMC, up from about 30% before Chair Warsh's post-meeting framing that the Fed is merely "removing some accommodation." Goldman Sachs has added an October hike to its forecast and Bank of America now sees moves in both October and December. Here is the repricing, the language behind it, and the two data points that decide it.
Author  Irene Q.
Sep 23, Wed
Rate futures now price roughly 55% to 62% for a 25bp hike at the October 27-28 FOMC, up from about 30% before Chair Warsh's post-meeting framing that the Fed is merely "removing some accommodation." Goldman Sachs has added an October hike to its forecast and Bank of America now sees moves in both October and December. Here is the repricing, the language behind it, and the two data points that decide it.
placeholder
Memory chips surge, Nasdaq notches a second straight record close — why the Dow fell 185 points anywayMicron gained 5%, SanDisk 6.8%, Seagate 4% and Western Digital 3% as the memory complex led the Nasdaq Composite to a second consecutive record close of 27,244.28. But the Dow fell 185 points as JPMorgan, Wells Fargo and Schwab slid more than 3% each — a split tape that says more about positioning than about the economy.
Author  Irene Q.
Sep 23, Wed
Micron gained 5%, SanDisk 6.8%, Seagate 4% and Western Digital 3% as the memory complex led the Nasdaq Composite to a second consecutive record close of 27,244.28. But the Dow fell 185 points as JPMorgan, Wells Fargo and Schwab slid more than 3% each — a split tape that says more about positioning than about the economy.
placeholder
Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD drifts toward $4.300 with bears gaining tractionGold (XAU/USD) retraces Tuesday’s gains on Wednesday and drifts lower, approaching the $4,300 area as the US Dollar Index (DXY) rallies further amid high US Treasury yields.
Author  FXStreet
Sep 23, Wed
Gold (XAU/USD) retraces Tuesday’s gains on Wednesday and drifts lower, approaching the $4,300 area as the US Dollar Index (DXY) rallies further amid high US Treasury yields.
placeholder
US input costs rose at the fastest pace in four years — the September flash PMI beat is an inflation story, not a growth storyUS September flash PMIs came in far above expectations, with the composite at 58.4, a five-year high. But the detail that moved markets was input cost inflation at its fastest since October 2022, driven by fuel, transport and supply shortages. Brent is back above $100 and the 10-year Treasury yield has hit its highest since 2007.
Author  Suzie
Yesterday 06: 46
US September flash PMIs came in far above expectations, with the composite at 58.4, a five-year high. But the detail that moved markets was input cost inflation at its fastest since October 2022, driven by fuel, transport and supply shortages. Brent is back above $100 and the 10-year Treasury yield has hit its highest since 2007.
Related Instrument
goTop
quote