USD slips as data lift EUR – Scotiabank
Source Fxstreet
It’s month-end and there is a clear whiff of risk aversion across (most) markets this morning. There is a lot of red across the equity screens after disappointing earnings data from Microsoft and Meta, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
USD mixed to softer overall
“US growth data came in a little shy of expectations yesterday but the general trend in positive US data surprises is extending overall and, under the hood, the Q3 GDP data looked pretty solid, with real final sales to domestic purchasers (ex-ing out government, inventories and net exports) rising 3.2%.”
“Today brings ECI, weekly claims and personal income/spending and core PCE data at 8.30ET (plus the Chicago PMI at 9.45ET). Spending is expected to be up 0.4% M/M while the core PCE is forecast to rise 0.3% in the month but slow to 2.6% in the year. While G10 FX is mixed, the DXY retains a somewhat softer undertone despite the positive data run.”
“It’s marginal but the index is putting a little more pressure on noted support at 103.93. After the DXY’s three failures at 104.55 over the past week, a break under support would suggest a drop in the index to 103.3 or so. Some consolidation in FX would not surprise ahead of next week’s major event risk.”
Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline this weekend, briefly erasing its 2025 gains and dipping below its year-opening value of $93,507. The cryptocurrency fell to a low of $93,029 on Sunday, representing a 25% drop from its all-time high in October. Although it has rebounded slightly to around $94,209, the pressures on the market remain significant.
The downturn occurred despite the reopening of the U.S. government on Thursday, which many had hoped would provide essential support for crypto markets. This year initially appeared promising for cryptocurrencies, particularly after the inauguration of President Donald Trump, who has established the most pro-crypto administration thus far. However, ongoing political tensions—including Trump's tariff strategies and the recent government shutdown, lasting a historic 43 days—have contributed to several rapid price pullbacks for Bitcoin throughout the year.
Market dynamics are also being influenced by Bitcoin whales—investors holding large amounts of Bitcoin—who have been offloading portions of their assets, consequently stalling price rallies even as positive regulatory developments emerge. Despite these sell-offs, analysts from Glassnode argue that this behavior aligns with typical patterns seen among long-term investors during the concluding stages of bull markets, suggesting it is not indicative of a mass exodus.
Notably, Bitcoin is not alone in its struggles, as Ethereum and Solana have also recorded declines of 7.95% and 28.3%, respectively, since the start of the year, while numerous altcoins have faced even steeper losses.
Looking ahead, questions linger regarding the viability of the four-year cycle thesis, particularly given the increasing institutional support and regulatory frameworks now in place in the crypto landscape. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, remains optimistic, suggesting a potential Bitcoin resurgence in 2026 driven by the “debasement trade” thesis and a broader trend toward increased adoption of stablecoins, tokenization, and decentralized finance. Hougan emphasized the soundness of the underlying fundamentals, pointing to a positive outlook for the sector in the longer term.
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