USD slips as data lift EUR – Scotiabank

It’s month-end and there is a clear whiff of risk aversion across (most) markets this morning. There is a lot of red across the equity screens after disappointing earnings data from Microsoft and Meta, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.  

USD mixed to softer overall

“US growth data came in a little shy of expectations yesterday but the general trend in positive US data surprises is extending overall and, under the hood, the Q3 GDP data looked pretty solid, with real final sales to domestic purchasers (ex-ing out government, inventories and net exports) rising 3.2%.”

“Today brings ECI, weekly claims and personal income/spending and core PCE data at 8.30ET (plus the Chicago PMI at 9.45ET). Spending is expected to be up 0.4% M/M while the core PCE is forecast to rise 0.3% in the month but slow to 2.6% in the year. While G10 FX is mixed, the DXY retains a somewhat softer undertone despite the positive data run.”

“It’s marginal but the index is putting a little more pressure on noted support at 103.93. After the DXY’s three failures at 104.55 over the past week, a break under support would suggest a drop in the index to 103.3 or so. Some consolidation in FX would not surprise ahead of next week’s major event risk.”