The Dollar Index to ease back towards 102 – DBS
Source Fxstreet
The USD’s near-term direction will hinge on US CPI tonight, especially after markets were wrong-footed by strength in non-farm payrolls, DBS’ FX analyst Philip Wee notes.
25bps rate cut would be more appropriate
“Consensus expects inflation to ease to 2.3% y/y, and a downside surprise could see the DXY index easing back towards 102.”
“Fed rate cut expectations have already been trimmed to just two more 25bps cuts for the rest of the year. The September FOMC minutes released overnight indicate that some attendees believe that a 25bps cut would be more appropriate, although only Bowman voted against a 50bps cut.”
Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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China's factories are pricing in 5.7%. Its shoppers are pricing in 0.7%.China's October PPI rose 5.7% year on year, the fastest since June 2022, while CPI slowed to 0.7% and core CPI to 0.8%. Input prices rose faster than factory-gate prices, squeezing mid-stream margins by roughly five percentage points. The Hang Seng fell 0.13% on a day the S&P 500 rose 2.35%, the only major market to sit out the risk-on session.
China's October PPI rose 5.7% year on year, the fastest since June 2022, while CPI slowed to 0.7% and core CPI to 0.8%. Input prices rose faster than factory-gate prices, squeezing mid-stream margins by roughly five percentage points. The Hang Seng fell 0.13% on a day the S&P 500 rose 2.35%, the only major market to sit out the risk-on session.
Get the latest gold price analysis, forex gold insights, and XAU/USD analysis for November 11, 2026. Read on for the details.
Bitcoin lost its 200-day average — but the exit started three sessions before the CPIBitcoin fell 2.5% to about $73,400 on 11 November, an 11-week low, breaking its 200-day moving average near $73,100. The 24-hour liquidation tally reached $632 to $705 million, roughly 82% of it longs. But spot ETF outflows began three sessions earlier and USDT's market cap has shrunk $6.6 billion in 60 days — the leveraged length left before the inflation print did. A double top at 81,890 and 81,080 leaves a measured target of 69,366.
Bitcoin fell 2.5% to about $73,400 on 11 November, an 11-week low, breaking its 200-day moving average near $73,100. The 24-hour liquidation tally reached $632 to $705 million, roughly 82% of it longs. But spot ETF outflows began three sessions earlier and USDT's market cap has shrunk $6.6 billion in 60 days — the leveraged length left before the inflation print did. A double top at 81,890 and 81,080 leaves a measured target of 69,366.
On November 12, gold prices (XAUUSD) extended their recent losses, falling further below $4,000 in early Asian trading to hit an intraday low near $3,968, marking a third consecutive day
Gold closed below $4,000 again — the ETF crowd and central banks stayed, the momentum money leftSpot gold is trading near $3,999, its third consecutive lower daily low, after a 5.00% 10-year yield and a 102.85 dollar index raised the odds of a December hike to 87%. But the selling is not coming from the strategic holders: managed-money net longs fell to 324 tonnes, a 21-week low, and Goldman Sachs attributes roughly 95% of five weeks of selling to non-reportable positions. ETFs still hold a record 4,256 tonnes and central banks bought 321 tonnes in Q3. The table below sets the triggers, directions and levels.
Spot gold is trading near $3,999, its third consecutive lower daily low, after a 5.00% 10-year yield and a 102.85 dollar index raised the odds of a December hike to 87%. But the selling is not coming from the strategic holders: managed-money net longs fell to 324 tonnes, a 21-week low, and Goldman Sachs attributes roughly 95% of five weeks of selling to non-reportable positions. ETFs still hold a record 4,256 tonnes and central banks bought 321 tonnes in Q3. The table below sets the triggers, directions and levels.
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