USD: Markets might hold keys to a 50bp cut – ING

The currency market has cemented its view that the Federal Reserve's focus has shifted away from inflation this week. The dollar is trading on the soft side after two above-consensus inflation prints (CPI and PPI), with the impact of the former proving to be rather short-lived. The swap market is currently pricing in 37bp of easing for next week’s FOMC meeting, implying equally split chances of a 25bp or 50bp cut, ING’s FX strategist Francesco Pesole notes.

DXY cam retest the 100.5 recent lows into the FOMC

“Helping the dovish case overnight were some remarks by former FOMC member Bill Dudley, who explicitly said he would push for a 50bp cut were he still in the committee. He said in particular: ‘It’s very unusual to go into the meeting with this level of uncertainty – usually the Fed doesn’t like to surprise markets’. It may mean that markets themselves can tilt the balance towards a half-point move should their dovish bets be pent up into Wednesday’s meeting. There were also some media reports suggesting it would be a close call between 25bp and 50bp, which contributed to the dovish repricing.”

“We recently called for subdued USD performance into the US election. Unless the Fed surprises with a hawkish cut, we think even a dovish 25bp move can prevent a sustainable dollar recovery. Investors will also monitor the direction of US election polls in the coming days. Kamala Harris is openly calling for another debate, but Donald Trump has ruled it out. Remember that Harris is seen as a more dollar-negative candidate, and if her good momentum extends from the debate into the polls, we would really need some data/a Fed surprise to take the dollar higher.”

“Today, the only event in the US calendar is the University of Michigan survey, where inflation expectations are expected to have flatlined in September. If actual inflation data didn’t help the dollar much, we doubt some tier-two indicators will. With Fed members in the pre-meeting ‘blackout’ period, there is no real way to tone down the market’s dovish bets after Dudley’s comments, so the chances of more dovish repricing into Wednesday – and further dollar underperformance – have increased substantially. DXY could retest the 100.5 recent lows into the FOMC.”