USD: Harris narrowly wins the debate – ING

Source Fxstreet

Donald Trump and Kamala Harris debated for more than 90 minutes yesterday over a number of key issues including abortion rights, immigration policy and the economy. Unlike the first presidential debate between Trump and Biden, where the latter came out as clearly defeated, this one was not interpreted as ending in any ‘knock out’ win. However, markets seem to have awarded Harris a victory on points, and a CNN poll showed 63% of voters thought Harris won the debate, ING’s FX strategist Francesco Pesole notes.

Trump win can keep a lid on USD gains

“In FX, a Trump win is associated with a stronger dollar, which is trading on the soft side across the board. In the EM space, Asian currencies are the best performers, which is a clear indication of Trump trades being scaled back. Interestingly, USD/CNY is only modestly lower and two key China proxy trades (AUD and NZD) are lagging other G10 currencies.”

“That may be a consequence of Harris opposing Trump’s universal tax plans but still sounding determined to maintain protectionism pressure on China. CEE currencies and the high-beta NOK are also moderately stronger, which could be associated with lower geopolitical risks associated with Russia-Ukraine under Harris. More details on FX sensitivity to US election topics can be found in our US election guide for the FX market.”

“An extension of the presidential debate fallout in markets will get mixed up with the impact of the August inflation report today. The risks do appear slightly tilted to the upside for the dollar, as markets may lean even more in favour of a 25bp cut next week on a consensus (or above) figure, and may instead require a 0.1% MoM figure to push the pricing closer to 50bp. Crucially, 0.1% does not guarantee a 50bp cut in September. However, as highlighted above, lower perceived chances of a Trump win can keep a lid on USD gains, and barring a substantial CPI upside surprise, DXY may struggle to make its way back to 102.0 before the FOMC.”   

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
placeholder
Bitcoin CME gaps at $35,000, $27,000 and $21,000, which one gets filled first?Prioritize filling the $27,000 gap and even try higher.
Author  FXStreet
Aug 22, 2023
Prioritize filling the $27,000 gap and even try higher.
placeholder
Pinduoduo Earnings Incoming: Morgan Stanley Sees Long-Term Profit Potential​Insights – On November 21, Chinese e-commerce giant Pinduoduo (PDD) will release its Q3 2024 earnings.
Author  Mitrade
Nov 20, 2024
​Insights – On November 21, Chinese e-commerce giant Pinduoduo (PDD) will release its Q3 2024 earnings.
placeholder
Elon Musk’s xAI and Neuralink Launch New Funding Rounds​Billionaire Elon Musk recently raised funds for his two high-profile tech companies, xAI and Neuralink.
Author  Insights
Jun 03, 2025
​Billionaire Elon Musk recently raised funds for his two high-profile tech companies, xAI and Neuralink.
placeholder
Bitcoin briefly loses 2025 gains as crypto plunges over the weekend.Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline this weekend, briefly erasing its 2025 gains and dipping below its year-opening value of $93,507. The cryptocurrency fell to a low of $93,029 on Sunday, representing a 25% drop from its all-time high in October. Although it has rebounded slightly to around $94,209, the pressures on the market remain significant. The downturn occurred despite the reopening of the U.S. government on Thursday, which many had hoped would provide essential support for crypto markets. This year initially appeared promising for cryptocurrencies, particularly after the inauguration of President Donald Trump, who has established the most pro-crypto administration thus far. However, ongoing political tensions—including Trump's tariff strategies and the recent government shutdown, lasting a historic 43 days—have contributed to several rapid price pullbacks for Bitcoin throughout the year. Market dynamics are also being influenced by Bitcoin whales—investors holding large amounts of Bitcoin—who have been offloading portions of their assets, consequently stalling price rallies even as positive regulatory developments emerge. Despite these sell-offs, analysts from Glassnode argue that this behavior aligns with typical patterns seen among long-term investors during the concluding stages of bull markets, suggesting it is not indicative of a mass exodus. Notably, Bitcoin is not alone in its struggles, as Ethereum and Solana have also recorded declines of 7.95% and 28.3%, respectively, since the start of the year, while numerous altcoins have faced even steeper losses. Looking ahead, questions linger regarding the viability of the four-year cycle thesis, particularly given the increasing institutional support and regulatory frameworks now in place in the crypto landscape. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, remains optimistic, suggesting a potential Bitcoin resurgence in 2026 driven by the “debasement trade” thesis and a broader trend toward increased adoption of stablecoins, tokenization, and decentralized finance. Hougan emphasized the soundness of the underlying fundamentals, pointing to a positive outlook for the sector in the longer term.
Author  Mitrade
Nov 17, 2025
Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline this weekend, briefly erasing its 2025 gains and dipping below its year-opening value of $93,507. The cryptocurrency fell to a low of $93,029 on Sunday, representing a 25% drop from its all-time high in October. Although it has rebounded slightly to around $94,209, the pressures on the market remain significant. The downturn occurred despite the reopening of the U.S. government on Thursday, which many had hoped would provide essential support for crypto markets. This year initially appeared promising for cryptocurrencies, particularly after the inauguration of President Donald Trump, who has established the most pro-crypto administration thus far. However, ongoing political tensions—including Trump's tariff strategies and the recent government shutdown, lasting a historic 43 days—have contributed to several rapid price pullbacks for Bitcoin throughout the year. Market dynamics are also being influenced by Bitcoin whales—investors holding large amounts of Bitcoin—who have been offloading portions of their assets, consequently stalling price rallies even as positive regulatory developments emerge. Despite these sell-offs, analysts from Glassnode argue that this behavior aligns with typical patterns seen among long-term investors during the concluding stages of bull markets, suggesting it is not indicative of a mass exodus. Notably, Bitcoin is not alone in its struggles, as Ethereum and Solana have also recorded declines of 7.95% and 28.3%, respectively, since the start of the year, while numerous altcoins have faced even steeper losses. Looking ahead, questions linger regarding the viability of the four-year cycle thesis, particularly given the increasing institutional support and regulatory frameworks now in place in the crypto landscape. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, remains optimistic, suggesting a potential Bitcoin resurgence in 2026 driven by the “debasement trade” thesis and a broader trend toward increased adoption of stablecoins, tokenization, and decentralized finance. Hougan emphasized the soundness of the underlying fundamentals, pointing to a positive outlook for the sector in the longer term.
placeholder
Gold edges lower below $4,750 amid fragile Middle East ceasefire Gold price (XAU/USD) trades in negative territory around $4,705 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The precious metal edges lower amid a temporary two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran.   
Author  FXStreet
17 hours ago
Gold price (XAU/USD) trades in negative territory around $4,705 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The precious metal edges lower amid a temporary two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran.   
Related Instrument
goTop
quote