US Dollar rises ahead of Tuesday presidential debate
Source Fxstreet
- US Dollar is rising ahead of the presidential debate, continuing its strength despite ongoing dovish Fed easing expectations.
- Outcome of tonight's debate between Vice President Harris and former President Trump might shake the USD’s ground.
- Dovish bets on the Fed might limit the USD’s upside.
The US Dollar Index, a measure of the USD’s value against six other currencies, is firm ahead of tonight’s presidential debate. Markets are likely to react to the debate outcome, with analysts expecting volatility in currency markets depending on the perceived winner. Market focus is set on Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation figures.
Despite positive economic indicators, the market may be exaggerating its expectations for aggressive monetary policy easing. The current growth rate exceeds the long-term trend, signaling that markets may be overestimating the need for such measures. However, a 25 bps cut would seem to be a done deal.
Daily digest market movers: US Dollar firm on quiet Tuesday ahead of CPI figures despite steady dovish bets
- US Dollar continues to rise despite expectations of continued easing by the Fed.
- Traders are currently pricing in nearly 125 bps of easing by year-end, suggesting 50 bps cuts at the November and December meetings.
- Market also sees 225 bps of easing over the next 12 months.
- US presidential debate will be held Tuesday night and could provide more insights on how financial markets would perform under a Trump or Harris presidency.
- Perceived debate winner might set the pace of the Greenback’s dynamics. In addition, CPI figures on Wednesday will also be important.
DXY technical outlook: DXY sentiment slightly improves, indicator shift suggests momentum uptrend
Technical analysis for the DXY indicates a slight improvement in sentiment. Indicators, including the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), are still in negative territory but recovering, suggesting a potential shift in momentum. The DXY index recently reclaimed the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near 101.60, providing support to the short-term outlook.
To maintain this uptrend, buyers must continue to hold above this level. Key support levels to watch include 101.60, 101.30 and 101.00, while resistance levels lie at 101.80, 102.00 and 102.30.
Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Recommended Articles
Fed hike odds near 90% into Wednesday's decision — how to trade the dollar, gold and the S&P 500A 0.3% monthly core CPI print has lifted the market-implied probability of a 25bp Fed hike on 16 September to roughly 86.5% ~ 90%, which would be the first increase since July 2023. Here is the decision timeline, the pricing versus the forecasts, both scenarios, and the key levels for the dollar, gold and the S&P 500.
A 0.3% monthly core CPI print has lifted the market-implied probability of a 25bp Fed hike on 16 September to roughly 86.5% ~ 90%, which would be the first increase since July 2023. Here is the decision timeline, the pricing versus the forecasts, both scenarios, and the key levels for the dollar, gold and the S&P 500.
【Daily Brief】10-year Treasury yield briefly tops 5%, S&P 500 slips to 7,602 and the dollar firms at 99.3 as the Fed's decision eve beginsThe 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.014% on Monday — its first print above 5% since October 2023 — while the S&P 500 closed 0.48% lower at 7,619.98 and the dollar index firmed to 99.3. Here is the full market wrap ahead of Wednesday's FOMC decision, the dot plot and the August retail sales report, plus today's CLARITY Act Senate vote.
The 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.014% on Monday — its first print above 5% since October 2023 — while the S&P 500 closed 0.48% lower at 7,619.98 and the dollar index firmed to 99.3. Here is the full market wrap ahead of Wednesday's FOMC decision, the dot plot and the August retail sales report, plus today's CLARITY Act Senate vote.
Silver breaks $64 as precious metals rebound — can gold hold the $4,280 line into the Fed decision?Silver has climbed back above $64 an ounce for the first time this week, leading a broad rebound across precious metals hours before the Federal Reserve delivers what is expected to be its first rate hike since 2023. Spot silver was last at $64.64, up 1.49% on the day, while gold reclaimed $4,300 and platinum and palladium both advanced. The question now is whether the bounce is a genuine turn — or a pause before the Fed's dot plot decides the next move.
Silver has climbed back above $64 an ounce for the first time this week, leading a broad rebound across precious metals hours before the Federal Reserve delivers what is expected to be its first rate hike since 2023. Spot silver was last at $64.64, up 1.49% on the day, while gold reclaimed $4,300 and platinum and palladium both advanced. The question now is whether the bounce is a genuine turn — or a pause before the Fed's dot plot decides the next move.
Bitcoin falls below $75,000 as the CLARITY Act fails in the Senate — what the vote means for cryptoThe US Senate blocked the Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act in a 49-50 procedural vote, sending Bitcoin briefly below $75,000 — its biggest one-day drop since June. Ethereum fell more than 8%, Coinbase slid 10% and $75 billion of crypto market value evaporated. Here is what the vote was, why it failed, and the levels that matter now.
The US Senate blocked the Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act in a 49-50 procedural vote, sending Bitcoin briefly below $75,000 — its biggest one-day drop since June. Ethereum fell more than 8%, Coinbase slid 10% and $75 billion of crypto market value evaporated. Here is what the vote was, why it failed, and the levels that matter now.
Dow drops 631 points as the Fed hikes — but futures are rebounding: what's next for US stocks?The Dow fell 631 points and the S&P 500 closed below 7,600 after the Fed hiked rates for the first time since 2023, with the dot plot showing 16 of 18 officials expect more tightening. Asia-session futures are already recovering — here are the levels and analyst views that decide whether 7,500 holds.
The Dow fell 631 points and the S&P 500 closed below 7,600 after the Fed hiked rates for the first time since 2023, with the dot plot showing 16 of 18 officials expect more tightening. Asia-session futures are already recovering — here are the levels and analyst views that decide whether 7,500 holds.
Related Instrument
