USD to stay support as the Fed navigates the current economic landscape cautiously – DBS

The US Dollar Index (DXY) remains underpinned after surpassing 103.00 last week. Economists at DBS Bank analyze Greenback’s outlook.

US GDP and PCE deflator to underpin USD before next week’s FOMC meeting

Critical support levels include the 103.10 mark, aligning with its 50-DMA, and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level from its plunge from 107.10 to 100.60 in November-December.

Despite the Federal Reserve's blackout period, Fed officials have clearly dismissed endorsing the March rate cut pushed by markets at the FOMC meeting on 30-31 January. This week’s important economic data should reinforce the Fed’s patient stance.

On Thursday, consensus sees advanced GDP growth declining to 2% QoQ saar in 4Q 2023 from 4.9% in the previous quarter, supporting a soft-landing scenario. On Friday, markets will be wary of PCE inflation echoing the CPI's uptick by rising 0.2% MoM in December vs. the 0.1% decline a month earlier. Any unexpected results in these reports could push the DXY to test resistance near 104.50, near its 100-DMA and 61.8% Fibo level.