USD: JOLTS and consumer confidence in play – ING
Source Fxstreet
The US Dollar (USD) had a modest rally across the board on Monday but it was unclear why. It may have had something to do with month-end flows. However, the bigger story for FX markets is whether this broad, cross-market correction seen around 10/12 July has run its course, ING’s FX strategist Chris Turner notes.
Data driven movement under way
“Tomorrow's event risks will have a big say in that. Here, our team looks for a 15bp Bank of Japan rate hike, which could trigger more independent yen strength and extend the corrective environment. The second event risk tomorrow is the FOMC meeting, which we think will be risk-bullish and USD-negative as the FerFed prepares the market for a September rate hike.”
“Today, the focus is on two US releases – both at 16CET. The job opening JOLTS data are expected to correct back to the eight million level after the unexpected spike to 8.14 million last month. Also in focus is July consumer confidence data, which is expected to dip lower. A softer confidence figure today will add to the view that the Fed will want to ‘sustain the expansion’ with a September rate cut.”
“DXY did well yesterday but could hand back those gains today were US data to emerge on the soft side or if the rest of Europe emulates France's seemingly strong second-quarter GDP data.”
Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Market dynamics are also being influenced by Bitcoin whales—investors holding large amounts of Bitcoin—who have been offloading portions of their assets, consequently stalling price rallies even as positive regulatory developments emerge. Despite these sell-offs, analysts from Glassnode argue that this behavior aligns with typical patterns seen among long-term investors during the concluding stages of bull markets, suggesting it is not indicative of a mass exodus.
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Looking ahead, questions linger regarding the viability of the four-year cycle thesis, particularly given the increasing institutional support and regulatory frameworks now in place in the crypto landscape. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, remains optimistic, suggesting a potential Bitcoin resurgence in 2026 driven by the “debasement trade” thesis and a broader trend toward increased adoption of stablecoins, tokenization, and decentralized finance. Hougan emphasized the soundness of the underlying fundamentals, pointing to a positive outlook for the sector in the longer term.
Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline this weekend, briefly erasing its 2025 gains and dipping below its year-opening value of $93,507. The cryptocurrency fell to a low of $93,029 on Sunday, representing a 25% drop from its all-time high in October. Although it has rebounded slightly to around $94,209, the pressures on the market remain significant.
The downturn occurred despite the reopening of the U.S. government on Thursday, which many had hoped would provide essential support for crypto markets. This year initially appeared promising for cryptocurrencies, particularly after the inauguration of President Donald Trump, who has established the most pro-crypto administration thus far. However, ongoing political tensions—including Trump's tariff strategies and the recent government shutdown, lasting a historic 43 days—have contributed to several rapid price pullbacks for Bitcoin throughout the year.
Market dynamics are also being influenced by Bitcoin whales—investors holding large amounts of Bitcoin—who have been offloading portions of their assets, consequently stalling price rallies even as positive regulatory developments emerge. Despite these sell-offs, analysts from Glassnode argue that this behavior aligns with typical patterns seen among long-term investors during the concluding stages of bull markets, suggesting it is not indicative of a mass exodus.
Notably, Bitcoin is not alone in its struggles, as Ethereum and Solana have also recorded declines of 7.95% and 28.3%, respectively, since the start of the year, while numerous altcoins have faced even steeper losses.
Looking ahead, questions linger regarding the viability of the four-year cycle thesis, particularly given the increasing institutional support and regulatory frameworks now in place in the crypto landscape. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, remains optimistic, suggesting a potential Bitcoin resurgence in 2026 driven by the “debasement trade” thesis and a broader trend toward increased adoption of stablecoins, tokenization, and decentralized finance. Hougan emphasized the soundness of the underlying fundamentals, pointing to a positive outlook for the sector in the longer term.
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