Risks remain tilted towards some extension of the USD rebound – Scotiabank

The USD is steady in broad terms to start the week. Economists at Scotiabank analyze Dollar’s outlook.

Jobs data dust settles

Choppy USD trade Friday around the release of better-than-expected NFP but softer than forecast ISM Services data (especially employment) leaves a bit of a question mark over the near-term direction of FX, at least.

The slide in the USD reflected weaker US yields and perhaps positioning running into the jobs report where expectations had favoured stronger data. Downward revisions to the prior months’ data also took the edge off the USD’s initial reaction to the NFP report. Still, with the dust settling after the data, the USD won back some of the ground lost and still managed to close out the week in relatively positive shape. 

From a broader point of view, risks – reflecting seasonal trends and technical price action – remain tilted towards some extension of the broader USD rebound that developed over the turn of the year.