USD: Labor strength clashes with rate-cut pressure – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister notes that stronger US labour data briefly supported the Dollar, pushing EUR/USD back below 1.19, as markets priced out some interest rate cuts. However, he stresses this is only one data point and payrolls are often revised lower. Persistent political pressure from President Trump for further rate cuts is seen limiting a more sustainable US Dollar recovery.

Stronger jobs data versus political pressure

"Yesterday's US labour market report revealed unexpectedly robust job growth, with 130,000 new jobs being created (according to the Bloomberg survey, only half that number was anticipated). Furthermore, the unemployment rate unexpectedly declined."

"The US dollar also gained ground, with EUR-USD now trading below the 1.19 level again."

"Firstly, this was only one data release, and positive surprises would need to continue in the coming months for us to speak of a trend reversal."

"Yesterday's reaction showed that the chain of effects is still intact: the labour market surprised on the upside and interest rate cuts were priced out again."

"As long as the US president continues to demand interest rate cuts - he emphasised a few days ago that his candidate for Fed chair could deliver 15% growth with the right policy - the US dollar is unlikely to recover more sustainably."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)