The USD correction could continue today – Commerzbank
Source Fxstreet
On Monday, the US Dollar (USD) ended the day in the red for once. Economists at Commerzbank analyze Greenback’s outlook.
The USD is running out of steam at current levels
The USD is running out of steam at current levels. But this should not come as a surprise. At some point, even the last market participant will have internalized the officials' statements and formed their own opinion. And to be honest, not much has changed since last week, at least as far as the USD is concerned. Rather, the data will likely continue to be the determining factor in the Fed's direction.
Friday's PCE deflator will certainly be the most important indicator for an assessment. After all, given the strength of the US economy, inflation will ultimately determine when and how quickly the Fed will cut interest rates. However, today's wave of second and third tier data could already cause some movement. If the trend of the last few weeks continues, when the data tended to be disappointing and doubts about the US growth story began to surface, the USD correction could continue today.
Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Recommended Articles
Fed hike odds near 90% into Wednesday's decision — how to trade the dollar, gold and the S&P 500A 0.3% monthly core CPI print has lifted the market-implied probability of a 25bp Fed hike on 16 September to roughly 86.5% ~ 90%, which would be the first increase since July 2023. Here is the decision timeline, the pricing versus the forecasts, both scenarios, and the key levels for the dollar, gold and the S&P 500.
A 0.3% monthly core CPI print has lifted the market-implied probability of a 25bp Fed hike on 16 September to roughly 86.5% ~ 90%, which would be the first increase since July 2023. Here is the decision timeline, the pricing versus the forecasts, both scenarios, and the key levels for the dollar, gold and the S&P 500.
Dollar index tops 100 for the first time since July as the Fed's hawkish dot plot sinks inThe U.S. dollar index broke back above 100 for the first time since 31 July after the Fed delivered its first rate hike since 2023, with the dot plot showing 16 of 18 officials expect at least one more increase this year. Here are the levels that matter for DXY, the currencies feeling it most, and what to watch next.
The U.S. dollar index broke back above 100 for the first time since 31 July after the Fed delivered its first rate hike since 2023, with the dot plot showing 16 of 18 officials expect at least one more increase this year. Here are the levels that matter for DXY, the currencies feeling it most, and what to watch next.
Gold rebounds to near $4,350 on weaker US Dollar, falling oil pricesGold price (XAU/USD) rises to near $4,345 during the early Asian session on Friday. The precious metal rebounds from a six-week low amid falling oil prices and a weaker US Dollar (USD). Traders continue to assess the latest Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike and policy cues.
Gold price (XAU/USD) rises to near $4,345 during the early Asian session on Friday. The precious metal rebounds from a six-week low amid falling oil prices and a weaker US Dollar (USD). Traders continue to assess the latest Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike and policy cues.
US to delay new "overcapacity" tariffs on China — what the pause means for trade, inflation and the dollarWashington is expected to hold off announcing new tariffs over Chinese "overcapacity" until after the 24 September summit, according to Bloomberg. The postponed plan would have added 7.5% to Chinese goods, taking second-term US tariffs to around 20%. Here is what is on the table, and what a deal versus no deal would mean for the yuan, Hong Kong equities and the dollar.
Washington is expected to hold off announcing new tariffs over Chinese "overcapacity" until after the 24 September summit, according to Bloomberg. The postponed plan would have added 7.5% to Chinese goods, taking second-term US tariffs to around 20%. Here is what is on the table, and what a deal versus no deal would mean for the yuan, Hong Kong equities and the dollar.
Bitcoin squeezes back above $80,000 — 110,000 traders liquidated as the hawkish Fed and CLARITY setback fail to hold it down; is $83,000 next?Bitcoin closed above $80,000 on Friday for the first time since September 7, and pushed to $81,299 over the weekend, triggering about $603 million of liquidations — $523 million of them shorts — across more than 110,000 traders. With the Fed's hike already priced and the SEC and CFTC advancing crypto rules after the CLARITY Act failed, here is what stands between BTC and the $83,000 gate.
Bitcoin closed above $80,000 on Friday for the first time since September 7, and pushed to $81,299 over the weekend, triggering about $603 million of liquidations — $523 million of them shorts — across more than 110,000 traders. With the Fed's hike already priced and the SEC and CFTC advancing crypto rules after the CLARITY Act failed, here is what stands between BTC and the $83,000 gate.
Related Instrument
