Dow Jones futures rise due to rising odds of Fed multiple rate cuts
- Dow Jones futures may appreciate further due to improved market sentiment.
- The CME FedWatch Tool indicates roughly an 89% probability of a Fed rate cut at the September meeting.
- Key companies, including Rumble, Owens & Minor, and AMC Entertainment, are scheduled to release their quarterly results on Monday.
Dow Jones futures remain higher during early European hours, ahead of the regular market opening in the United States (US) on Monday, trading above 44,300, up by 0.12%. However, S&P 500 futures are steady near 6,400, and Nasdaq 100 futures fall 0.11% to trade around 23,700.
US stock futures may appreciate due to improved market sentiment, driven by the rising odds of the Federal Reserve (Fed) delivering multiple rate cuts by the end of this year. Markets are now pricing in approximately 89% odds of a Fed rate cut at the September meeting, up from 80% a week ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
The higher Initial Jobless Claims and lower July’s Nonfarm Payrolls in the United States (US) have boosted the expectations for a Fed rate cut next month, with another possible move in December. Tuesday will likely see US consumer inflation data due on Tuesday. Focus will be shifted toward Thursday’s preliminary UK Q2 GDP print and the US Producer Price Index (PPI). These data points may offer further impetus on the United States (US) economic conditions and shape future Fed policy outlook.
On Fedspeak, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman stated on Saturday that three interest rate cuts are likely to be appropriate this year. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem noted on Friday that US economic activity remains stable but warned of potential risks ahead, noting the Fed could fall short on both its inflation and employment goals, with particular downside risks to jobs.
Last week, the Dow Jones ended on a strong note, lifted by a rally in Apple that helped boost the broader market. The Nasdaq Composite closed at new record highs, while the S&P 500 finished just shy of another milestone. These gains came as robust corporate earnings fueled market momentum, with investors largely brushing off the impact of US President Donald Trump’s sweeping retaliatory tariffs. Key companies set to report quarterly results on Monday include Rumble (RUM), Owens & Minor (OMI), and AMC Entertainment (AMC).
Dow Jones FAQs
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500.
Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions.
Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits.
There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.
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