Bloomberg analysts raises the odds for XRP, ADA, and DOGE ETFs approval to 90%

Bloomberg analysts James Seyffart and EricBalchunas have raised the odds for altcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) approval to 90% following recent engagement with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The analysts are confident in spot XRP, Dogecoin, and Cardano ETFs.

“Eric Balchunas and I are raising our odds for the vast majority of the spot crypto ETF filings to 90% or higher,” Bloomberg ETF Analyst James Seyffart said on X. “Engagement from the SEC is a very positive sign in our opinion.”

NEW: @EricBalchunas & I are raising our odds for the vast majority of the spot crypto ETF filings to 90% or higher. Engagement from the SEC is a very positive sign in our opinion pic.twitter.com/5dh8G8rK6Y

— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) June 20, 2025

It all began with the approval of spot BTEC ETFs, which received a green light in 2024 after years of deliberation. It allowed investors to own BTC in traditional financial products directly. With the growing interest in crypto investments, the potential approval of spot altcoin ETFs could further expand the market.

Several spot crypto ETF filings are now awaiting approval from the pro-crypto SEC. Others are LEFT, Cardano, Polkadot, HBAR, Avalanche, and SUI—Paul Atkins, who became the agency’s new chairman in April. Since taking over, Atkins has promised a friendlier approach to digital assets.

The analysts noted that the SEC has already acknowledged the 19b-4 forms for these applications and likely views the underlying altcoins as commodities. They also pointed to Commodity Futures Trading Commission-regulated futures markets that already exist for many assets.

Polymarket aligns with Bloomberg’s prediction

On the Polymarket, a prediction site, users are now betting that the Ripple ETF will be approved by the end of the year. The odds are also at  90%. This is a 19% surge from the previous odds, which suggests that buyers are becoming more confident.

Currently, Bitcoin and Ethereum-based ETFs are a big part of the market. However, XRP’s progress toward becoming an ETF could provide good competition.

If the ETF is approved, XRP would be bought and sold on traditional stock exchanges like any other security. Holders would not have to handle their crypto wallets directly. This makes it easier for small investors to enter and lets institutional capital come in without directly investing in crypto.

Analysts say approvals could arrive within weeks

The next few months could be very important for getting ready for what could be the biggest crypto event of the year. As for timing, analysts say approvals could arrive within weeks or closer to final deadlines later this year. Most applications have their final SEC decision dates in October and November.

However, earlier this week, the US SEC said it would take an extra 35 days to decide whether to accept or reject Franklin Templeton’s spot XRP filing. Instead, it opened a comment period for the ETF and proposed a spot Solana ETF from the same firm.

While there’s still a delay in approving the spot XRP ETF in the US, the 3iQ XRP ETF was launched on the Toronto Stock Exchange on Wednesday. As reported by Cryptopolitan, XRPQ started without a management fee for the first six months. 

This made it one of the most affordable digital asset exchange-traded funds (ETFs). It will only put money into long-term holdings of XRP bought from trustworthy over-the-counter (OTC) counterparties and digital asset trading sites.

Seyffart and Balchunas also assigned a 95% probability of approval to crypto basket or index ETF filings within the next six months by Grayscale, Hashdex, Bitwise, and Franklin Templeton. Several of these applications are approaching their final SEC deadlines in early July.

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