Here’s What Pushed Bitcoin to $111K and Why Analysts See More Upside

Bitcoin has now moved to a new all-time high (ATH), climbing to $111,889 amid renewed investor enthusiasm and growing institutional activity. The rally, which follows weeks of steady gains, has been prompted by a convergence of supportive macroeconomic and capital market factors.

According to Geoffrey Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s global head of digital assets research, all previously identified drivers of this rally are now contributing simultaneously, fueling optimism for more upside.

Institutional Rotation and Macro Trends Drive Bullish Forecasts

Kendrick reiterated his long-term forecast, projecting Bitcoin to reach $120,000 by the end of Q2 2025, $200,000 by year-end, and potentially $500,000 by 2028. In his latest market update, Kendrick pointed to fresh quarterly data from the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which shows sovereign entities and major institutions increasing their exposure to Bitcoin indirectly through companies like MicroStrategy.

Additionally, the data signals a shift in capital allocation, with over $7.5 billion flowing into Bitcoin ETFs in recent weeks while gold exchange-traded products (ETPs) saw a $3.6 billion outflow.

Another key trend highlighted by Kendrick is the rotation from traditional assets like gold into Bitcoin. The decline in gold ETF holdings, contrasted with surging inflows into Bitcoin-based financial products, suggests a growing appetite for crypto assets as alternative stores of value.

Kendrick further noted that Bitcoin’s strong correlation with US Treasury term premiums has helped position it as a hedge amid rising concerns about bond market risks, both in the US and globally.

Mixed Analyst Sentiment Amid Liquidity Concerns and Regulatory Tailwinds

Despite the optimistic outlook, not all analysts are convinced that the road ahead will be smooth. Dr. Kirill Kretov, a senior analyst at CoinPanel, cautioned that the current high levels of open interest (OI) paired with relatively thin liquidity conditions could heighten volatility.

According to Kretov, these dynamics can amplify market reactions to sudden news or regulatory developments. He likened the situation to a tightly stretched rubber band, suggesting that even small events could trigger outsized price swings.

Still, others remain confident that momentum will carry Bitcoin higher. Paul Howard, senior director at Wincent, believes the market is experiencing a classic “buy in May and go away” scenario, often used to describe seasonal strength in financial markets.

Howard attributed his confidence to the regulatory clarity emerging in the US and the increasing participation of large financial institutions, both through ETF exposure and direct purchases. These factors, he noted, are laying the groundwork for continued upward movement through the summer months.

Overall, while analysts acknowledge the possibility of short-term volatility, the broader consensus suggests the foundation of Bitcoin’s rally is more robust than in previous cycles. Institutional demand, favorable macro signals, and expanding regulatory acceptance continue to shape a market that appears increasingly ready for sustained growth beyond its current highs.

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView