Trump threatens 25% tariff on countries buying Venezuelan oil

Trump dropped another bomb on Monday. He said countries that keep buying oil or gas from Venezuela will face a 25% tariff on everything they trade with the U.S.

The so-called leader of the free world made that clear in a Truth Social post, where he also reiterated that the tariffs will kick in on April 2. And yes, it’s aimed right at Maduro and China.

The numbers aren’t small. Venezuela pumped out around 660,000 barrels per day in 2024, according to Kpler. About 270,000 bpd of that went to China, making it Venezuela’s biggest oil customer. The U.S. came in second, importing 233,000 bpd. India got 61,000 bpd, and Spain pulled in about 60,000 bpd.

Trump targets China and Venezuela with tariffs

“This announcement by the Trump administration appears to be one more action targeting China,” said Matt Smith, oil analyst at Kpler, to CNBC. That’s not guesswork. That’s exactly how Trump wants it.

He’s trying to choke off China’s grip on Venezuelan oil while handing U.S. producers an edge. That’s what people told The Wall Street Journal, after a closed-door White House meeting between Trump, Chevron CEO Mike Wirth, and other oil execs. During that meeting, Trump said he’s open to extending Chevron’s license to drill in Venezuela—despite saying earlier in February that he’d reverse Biden’s decision that allowed them back in. The Treasury gave Chevron until April 3 to pack it up. Now? Maybe not.

Meanwhile, oil prices started to react. Brent crude jumped 61 cents to $72.77 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate rose 59 cents to $68.87.

“We expect oil prices to go higher in light of this news and may rise further if Trump follows through with this proclamation,” said Leo Mariani, an analyst at Roth, in a note to clients.

But this isn’t just about oil. Trump says Venezuela is sending criminals across the U.S. border. When he announced the tariffs, he also claimed that the Tren de Aragua gang—which his administration labeled a foreign terrorist group—is entering the country under orders from Maduro.

Trump invokes 1798 law, targets gang and judge

So Trump went even further. On March 15, he pulled out the old 1798 Alien Enemies Act. He’s using it to try and deport members of Tren de Aragua, calling them an invading force engaged in “irregular warfare” against the U.S. He’s basically saying it’s war. Real war.

But a federal judge said no. District Judge James Boasberg blocked the plan. That pissed Trump off. He called for Boasberg to be impeached, which pushed the whole thing into what legal experts are calling a constitutional crisis. Even Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts had to step in and slap Trump down. Roberts publicly rejected the calls to remove Boasberg.

Recession fears rise as Trump pushes tariffs

A new Deutsche Bank survey says the odds of a recession in the U.S. over the next year are around 43%. That’s almost a coin toss. Jeffrey Gundlach from DoubleLine Capital put the chances higher—50 to 60%, according to what he told CNBC.

The Federal Reserve doesn’t sound too confident either. Last week, Jerome Powell admitted that things are shaky thanks to Trump’s tariff shenanigans. He said the economy is still “strong overall” but added that growth is slowing. The Fed cut its GDP forecast for the year down to just 1.7%. That’s the weakest since 2011, not counting the pandemic crash.

Meanwhile, core inflation is still hot—2.8%, well above the Fed’s 2% goal. They say they can bring it down by 2027. Right. Maybe. The problem is, inflation’s sticky, growth is slowing, Trump keeps picking trade fights with US allies, and Americans are whispering the word stagflation again. Last time that happened? Early 1980s.

“Markets have been nervous in recent weeks about the prospects ahead,” said Morgan Stanley in a note Monday. “What’s really at the heart of the conundrum, however, is that the U.S. might be at risk for a bout of stagflation, where growth slows and inflation remains sticky.”

Barclays analysts said the signs point to only a “modest” slowdown, but they still predict growth of just 0.7% for the year. That’s barely above recession.

Even UCLA Anderson, a big name in economic forecasting, has issued its first-ever “recession watch.” Why? Trump’s tariffs. That’s what their economist Clement Bohr said.

Bohr wrote, “This Watch also serves as a warning to the current administration: be careful what you wish for because, if all your wishes come true, you could very well be the author of a deep recession. And it may not simply be a standard recession that is being chaperoned into existence, but a stagflation.”

So yeah. Trump is trying to crush China and Maduro, control Chevron’s operations, keep Tren de Aragua out, and scare the hell out of the Federal Reserve—all while making sure oil flows back to the U.S. But his new tariffs could set off a chain reaction no one’s ready for. Every single thing he’s doing is shaking the system from oil prices to GDP.

And with the 2024 oil exports at 660,000 bpd, and the top buyers being China, the U.S., India, and Spain, this 25% tariff could hit a lot more than just Maduro’s oil tankers. It could touch supply chains, inflation, trade agreements, and maybe even the Constitution.

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