Will DOGE achieve its major goals in 2025? Here’s what Polymarket predictions say

Elon Musk’s DOGE has devised strategies to cut the federal budget, from auditing Fort Knox gold reserves to creating a DOGE dividend. However, sentiment on betting markets like Polymarket suggests that these plans may be too ambitious.

DOGE has taken extreme measures to fulfill its goals, such as major layoffs from several government agencies and the shutdown of the US Agency of International Development.

According to DOGE’s official savings tracker, the organization has saved $65 billion of the government’s budget to date. However, this achievement has not won bettors’ confidence in DOGE’s future promises. Overall, their hopes seem to be low based on Polymarket data.

Polymarket bettors aren’t positive about the budget being cut by 5% in 2025

Elon Musk aimed for budget cuts of up to $2 trillion. He said reaching half that amount would be “an epic outcome.” Federal government spending reached $6.9 billion in 2024, which means that DOGE will have to cut $345 billion to hit the 5% mark in 2025.

According to Polymarket’s predictions, Musk’s 5% cut is unlikely to happen, as 74% of bettors predicted against it. 

There’s only a 31% chance for Trump to create a DOGE dividend this year

Elon Musk claimed that Trump is “supportive of’ the DOGE dividend idea.” During the CPAC conference last week, he said, “It sounds like that is something we are going to do.”

If Musk is able to cut the targeted costs, as much as $5000 will be distributed per taxpayer.

Currently, Polymarket remains 31% positive and 69% negative about this plan.

Will DOGE audit the FED by May?

In an X post, Elon Musk responded to the question of auditing the Federal Reserve and said, “All aspects of the government must be fully transparent and accountable to the people. No exceptions, including, if not especially, the Federal Reserve.” 

All aspects of the government must be fully transparent and accountable to the people.

No exceptions, including, if not especially, the Federal Reserve. https://t.co/qZnXspcKPS

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) February 9, 2025

Polymarket doesn’t see it as a possibility, as 79% voted No, with only 21% stating Yes.

Polymarket takes down its prediction because of DOGE‘s lies

Polymarket is no longer accepting bets on whether DOGE will cut $3 billion worth of DEI contracts. This is because its own DOGE data tracker appears to show unreliable information.

In response to “Will DOGE cut $3 billion of DEI contracts before March?” Polymarket received $16,352 worth of bets. The results were based on its DOGE tracker data, which the platform launched this month.

Polymarket said, “Because the underlying data used for this market’s resolution source (doge-tracker.com) changed,” it canceled the bet. It refunded all the losses and resolved the market with a 50-50 outcome. 

The whole premise of Polymarket was to allow people to bet on predictions with objective resolution criteria. And now we have markets settled based on what’s posted on some random website someone put up. What a time. https://t.co/hrhZmO5N6u pic.twitter.com/Ws9wI3Cxej

— Deva Hazarika (@devahaz) February 10, 2025

A user on X @electricfutures revealed the number of mistakes made by DOGE when logging in the FPDS database, and mentioned that the agency is now doing “damage control.” The user said that despite making the corrections, DOGE still claims to have saved $55 billion. He added that the actual total savings would be around 32.5 billion, which is still “a huge overestimate.”

And despite applying most of the changes I called for in my original thread, they STILL CLAIM TO HAVE SAVED $55B. The savings listed dropped from $16.5B to $6.5B! If this is 20% of the total, like they also claim, the total would be $32.5B! (In reality still a huge overestimate!)

— Momentum Chaser (@electricfutures) February 20, 2025

The agency also allegedly counted one contract three times to reach $2 billion in savings. It also reported another IT contract’s saving of $1 billion, but its spending was already 80%. 

DOGE has already corrected these errors. However, @Electricfutures on X says that despite correcting these errors, DOGE “did NOT change the underlying flaws in how they were estimating savings for any of the other contracts.”

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