Analyst Reveals Bitcoin’s Halving Cycle Signals Untapped Potential—What’s Next?

Bitcoin’s price performance in recent weeks has maintained a sluggish movement, with the cryptocurrency now hovering near the $97,000 mark. Despite the 3% decline over the past two weeks, Bitcoin remains within a consolidation phase following its January all-time high above $109,000.

As the asset lingers in this range, discussions around the ongoing halving cycle and its potential impact on future price movements have gained momentum. One noteworthy perspective comes from CryptoQuant analyst Oinonen, who recently shared insights into Bitcoin’s current standing relative to past halving cycles.

Institutional Activity and Market Signals

In a detailed analysis titled “Comparing Post-Halving Performance,” Oinonen pointed out that Bitcoin’s price has only risen 63% since the most recent halving in April 2024. This contrasts sharply with the 686% surge seen in the halving cycle of 2020-2021.

While the power-law model and the principle of diminishing returns suggest more subdued gains over time, the relatively modest appreciation since the last halving indicates that the current cycle may still be in progress, leaving room for further upside.

Oinonen also highlighted the role of institutional players in shaping Bitcoin’s price outlook. Notably, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) continues to be an influential market participant. In early 2025, the company increased its Bitcoin holdings by 7,633 BTC, bringing its total to roughly 478,740 units.

According to Oinonen, Strategy’s ongoing acquisition strategy is a key indicator of institutional demand. Historically, these purchases have been pro-cyclical, suggesting that continued accumulation could signal a positive trajectory for Bitcoin’s spot price. Conversely, a slowdown in institutional buying could reflect a weaker market sentiment.

Long-Term Outlook Amid Unfinished Halving Cycle

Looking ahead, Oinonen anticipates a mixed market environment. Short-term challenges, such as a potential “sell in May” effect and a stagnant summer, may give way to stronger performance in the fourth quarter.

The analyst reveals that this seasonal pattern has played out repeatedly in previous years, often resulting in elevated price levels by year’s end. However, the possibility of a more significant correction—spanning several months or even a year—remains on the table, particularly if macroeconomic events, such as geopolitical resolutions, shift market dynamics.

Overall, the current halving cycle, by Oinonen’s analysis, appears incomplete. The moderate gains since April 2024 reflect a market that has yet to fully capitalize on the reduced issuance rate.

As such, the notion that Bitcoin’s bull run might still have legs is underpinned by historical trends and the presence of institutional players like Strategy. The interplay between reduced supply and continued demand sets the stage for potential upward movements, even as near-term volatility persists.

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView