Solana (SOL) Back Above $200: Will It Hold or Fade?
Source Newsbtc
Solana started a decent increase above the $188 resistance. SOL price is back above $200 and might struggle to continue higher above $205.
- SOL price started a fresh increase above the $185 and $188 levels against the US Dollar.
- The price is now trading above $195 and the 100-hourly simple moving average.
- There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support at $196 on the hourly chart of the SOL/USD pair (data source from Kraken).
- The pair could start a fresh increase if the bulls clear the $205 zone.
Solana Price Reclaims $200
Solana price formed a base above $175 and started a decent upward move, like Bitcoin and Ethereum. SOL was able to climb above the $180 and $185 resistance levels.
The bulls pushed it above the $188 resistance and then $200. A high was formed at $206 and the price is now consolidating gains near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $186 swing high to the $206 low.
Solana is now trading above $195 and the 100-hourly simple moving average. There is also a connecting bullish trend line forming with support at $196 on the hourly chart of the SOL/USD pair. On the upside, the price is facing resistance near the $205 level.
The next major resistance is near the $212 level. The main resistance could be $220. A successful close above the $220 resistance zone could set the pace for another steady increase. The next key resistance is $232. Any more gains might send the price toward the $245 level.
Another Decline in SOL?
If SOL fails to rise above the $205 resistance, it could start another decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $196 zone and the trend line. The first major support is near the $190 level or the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $186 swing high to the $206 low.
A break below the $190 level might send the price toward the $185 zone. If there is a close below the $185 support, the price could decline toward the $172 support in the near term.
Technical Indicators
Hourly MACD – The MACD for SOL/USD is losing pace in the bullish zone.
Hourly Hours RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for SOL/USD is above the 50 level.
Major Support Levels – $196 and $190.
Major Resistance Levels – $205 and $212.
Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Looking ahead, questions linger regarding the viability of the four-year cycle thesis, particularly given the increasing institutional support and regulatory frameworks now in place in the crypto landscape. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, remains optimistic, suggesting a potential Bitcoin resurgence in 2026 driven by the “debasement trade” thesis and a broader trend toward increased adoption of stablecoins, tokenization, and decentralized finance. Hougan emphasized the soundness of the underlying fundamentals, pointing to a positive outlook for the sector in the longer term.
Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline this weekend, briefly erasing its 2025 gains and dipping below its year-opening value of $93,507. The cryptocurrency fell to a low of $93,029 on Sunday, representing a 25% drop from its all-time high in October. Although it has rebounded slightly to around $94,209, the pressures on the market remain significant.
The downturn occurred despite the reopening of the U.S. government on Thursday, which many had hoped would provide essential support for crypto markets. This year initially appeared promising for cryptocurrencies, particularly after the inauguration of President Donald Trump, who has established the most pro-crypto administration thus far. However, ongoing political tensions—including Trump's tariff strategies and the recent government shutdown, lasting a historic 43 days—have contributed to several rapid price pullbacks for Bitcoin throughout the year.
Market dynamics are also being influenced by Bitcoin whales—investors holding large amounts of Bitcoin—who have been offloading portions of their assets, consequently stalling price rallies even as positive regulatory developments emerge. Despite these sell-offs, analysts from Glassnode argue that this behavior aligns with typical patterns seen among long-term investors during the concluding stages of bull markets, suggesting it is not indicative of a mass exodus.
Notably, Bitcoin is not alone in its struggles, as Ethereum and Solana have also recorded declines of 7.95% and 28.3%, respectively, since the start of the year, while numerous altcoins have faced even steeper losses.
Looking ahead, questions linger regarding the viability of the four-year cycle thesis, particularly given the increasing institutional support and regulatory frameworks now in place in the crypto landscape. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, remains optimistic, suggesting a potential Bitcoin resurgence in 2026 driven by the “debasement trade” thesis and a broader trend toward increased adoption of stablecoins, tokenization, and decentralized finance. Hougan emphasized the soundness of the underlying fundamentals, pointing to a positive outlook for the sector in the longer term.
