‘Will Trump pardon Roger Ver?’ – Polymarket bettors wager

Polymarket and Kalshi bettors can now wager money on a new trending topic: whether President-elect Donald Trump will pardon Roger Ver, also known as “Bitcoin Jesus,” the biggest early investor in Bitcoin startups and founder of Bitcoin.com. 

As the petition to set Roger Ver free from bogus tax fraud charges a la the U.S. justice system gains momentum, Bitcoin’s Johnny Appleseed is a trending topic on a couple other fronts as well: the Polymarket and Kalshi betting websites.

In an email to followers from the Free Roger Now Campaign sent on December 7, the organization announced: “We’re excited to share some breaking news in our journey to secure justice for Roger Ver! Roger is now a trending topic on Polymarket and Kalshi, two of the most prominent prediction markets, showcasing the global momentum surrounding his case.”

As of December 8 at 12:32 am (JST) bettors on Polymarket believe there is a 42% chance that Donald Trump will pardon Roger within the first 100 days of his presidency. Kalshi bettors see a 31% chance. These markets are still quite young, having just started up this month, and are currently trending bets.

Casting lots for Bitcoin Jesus

As H.L. Mencken once said: “A good politician is quite as unthinkable as an honest burglar.” Nonetheless, people are banking on Trump setting two Bitcoin luminaries free during his presidency — Ross Ulbricht and Roger Ver. Trump has promised to free Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht on “day one,” and Ver, a supporter of Ulbricht, wants to hold him to it. Ross is currently serving a double life sentence plus 40 years for his role in the Bitcoin-centric darknet marketplace for drugs.

For his part, Roger is facing charges from the U.S. Department of Justice for alleged tax fraud, with the United States government claiming Ver “caused a loss to the IRS of at least $48 million,” by underreporting the value of his bitcoin holdings, and then selling later.

However, critics of the IRS shakedown and Ver himself emphasize that he made every effort to comply with the law before renouncing his U.S. citizenship in 2014, and wasn’t even a citizen when he made the sale of BTC in question. Many believe he is being targeted for his consistent advocacy of free markets, and criticism of the state. Ver could face an unbelievable 109 years in prison if convicted.

Trump breaks promises, Bitcoiners hold out hope regardless

For those who remember when Donald Trump was gunning for the White House in 2016, his repeated push to investigate and “lock up” democratic candidate Hillary Clinton for corruption turned out to be a massive nothing-burger. In fact, shortly after being installed as president, Trump honored the Clintons at a congressional luncheon and before that admitted to supporters chanting “Lock her up”: “That plays great before the election – now we don’t care, right?”

Still, hoping against hope for some kind of bureaucratic crack in the wall, or the corruption of politics to be leveraged so that they actually do some good accidentally, bitcoiners of all cloths are signing petitions for both Ross and Roger. Aside from an outright jailbreak, this is what advocates of freedom have got right now, it seems.

The Free Roger Now Campaign sees the listings on Polymarket and Kalshi as something much bigger than just betting, however. “These listings are more than just a milestone—they’re an opportunity to amplify Roger’s story and draw attention to the unjust charges he’s facing,” the email notes. “As the global conversation grows louder, so does the chance of securing justice.”

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