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On-Chain Data Suggests Bitcoin Price Trend Reversal Is Yet To Occur — What’s Happening?

Source Newsbtc

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) ended the week on a good note after making a late rally on Friday, September 13. This recent price upswing has led to talks about the Bitcoin price making a comeback following a horrendous start to September.

Interestingly, the latest on-chain data suggests that the ongoing price recovery might not exactly be what it looks like. So, what then is happening with the price of Bitcoin?

Declining Volume Suggests Bitcoin Price Is Still In Downtrend

In a post on the X platform, popular crypto analyst Ali Martinez shared an on-chain observation that could offer insight into recent Bitcoin price action. The relevant indicator here is Santiment’s transaction volume metric, which monitors the total amount of a cryptocurrency transacted within a given time interval.

Historically, the transaction volume metric can be associated with the strength and direction of the market’s price trends. According to Martinez, Bitcoin’s transaction volume tends to rise during periods of upward price movement, as the market is usually more active. On the other hand, BTC’s transaction volume typically decreases during a price downtrend, as market participants engage less in buying and selling activities.

As of now, the Bitcoin transaction volume continues to fall, implying that even though the Bitcoin price seems to be recovering, a definitive trend reversal has not yet occurred. This sustained decline in volume indicates market uncertainty, suggesting that the price of Bitcoin may continue to consolidate or even experience further downward movement.

The reduced market activity could be associated with the bearish history of BTC in September, with investors likely choosing to navigate the market with more caution. Ultimately, this indicates that the latest Bitcoin rally may be short-lived, with the premier cryptocurrency likely not to build on its recent momentum.

Bitcoin Whales Realize $50 Million In Profit

It appears that some Bitcoin holders are not waiting for the flagship cryptocurrency to resume its bull run to cash in on their profits. For instance, on-chain data shows that some large investors accrued a significant amount in profit following the recent Bitcoin price rally above $60,000.

Ali Martinez revealed in a separate post on X that BTC whales took advantage of the recent price spike to realize more than $50 million in profits. This is based on an increase in long-term holder whales’ realized profit (in USD), implying that old large investors sold their coins at a higher price than the acquisition price.

This level of profit-taking can be a negative signal for the premier cryptocurrency, as large sell-offs can cause downward pressure on the Bitcoin price. Interestingly, the price of BTC has not made any significant movement in the past day and continues to hover around the $60,000 level.

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Bitcoin briefly loses 2025 gains as crypto plunges over the weekend.Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline this weekend, briefly erasing its 2025 gains and dipping below its year-opening value of $93,507. The cryptocurrency fell to a low of $93,029 on Sunday, representing a 25% drop from its all-time high in October. Although it has rebounded slightly to around $94,209, the pressures on the market remain significant. The downturn occurred despite the reopening of the U.S. government on Thursday, which many had hoped would provide essential support for crypto markets. This year initially appeared promising for cryptocurrencies, particularly after the inauguration of President Donald Trump, who has established the most pro-crypto administration thus far. However, ongoing political tensions—including Trump's tariff strategies and the recent government shutdown, lasting a historic 43 days—have contributed to several rapid price pullbacks for Bitcoin throughout the year. Market dynamics are also being influenced by Bitcoin whales—investors holding large amounts of Bitcoin—who have been offloading portions of their assets, consequently stalling price rallies even as positive regulatory developments emerge. Despite these sell-offs, analysts from Glassnode argue that this behavior aligns with typical patterns seen among long-term investors during the concluding stages of bull markets, suggesting it is not indicative of a mass exodus. Notably, Bitcoin is not alone in its struggles, as Ethereum and Solana have also recorded declines of 7.95% and 28.3%, respectively, since the start of the year, while numerous altcoins have faced even steeper losses. Looking ahead, questions linger regarding the viability of the four-year cycle thesis, particularly given the increasing institutional support and regulatory frameworks now in place in the crypto landscape. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, remains optimistic, suggesting a potential Bitcoin resurgence in 2026 driven by the “debasement trade” thesis and a broader trend toward increased adoption of stablecoins, tokenization, and decentralized finance. Hougan emphasized the soundness of the underlying fundamentals, pointing to a positive outlook for the sector in the longer term.

Author Mitrade

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Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline this weekend, briefly erasing its 2025 gains and dipping below its year-opening value of $93,507. The cryptocurrency fell to a low of $93,029 on Sunday, representing a 25% drop from its all-time high in October. Although it has rebounded slightly to around $94,209, the pressures on the market remain significant. The downturn occurred despite the reopening of the U.S. government on Thursday, which many had hoped would provide essential support for crypto markets. This year initially appeared promising for cryptocurrencies, particularly after the inauguration of President Donald Trump, who has established the most pro-crypto administration thus far. However, ongoing political tensions—including Trump's tariff strategies and the recent government shutdown, lasting a historic 43 days—have contributed to several rapid price pullbacks for Bitcoin throughout the year. Market dynamics are also being influenced by Bitcoin whales—investors holding large amounts of Bitcoin—who have been offloading portions of their assets, consequently stalling price rallies even as positive regulatory developments emerge. Despite these sell-offs, analysts from Glassnode argue that this behavior aligns with typical patterns seen among long-term investors during the concluding stages of bull markets, suggesting it is not indicative of a mass exodus. Notably, Bitcoin is not alone in its struggles, as Ethereum and Solana have also recorded declines of 7.95% and 28.3%, respectively, since the start of the year, while numerous altcoins have faced even steeper losses. Looking ahead, questions linger regarding the viability of the four-year cycle thesis, particularly given the increasing institutional support and regulatory frameworks now in place in the crypto landscape. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, remains optimistic, suggesting a potential Bitcoin resurgence in 2026 driven by the “debasement trade” thesis and a broader trend toward increased adoption of stablecoins, tokenization, and decentralized finance. Hougan emphasized the soundness of the underlying fundamentals, pointing to a positive outlook for the sector in the longer term.

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