Litecoin price is set for a decline after it fails to close above resistance barrier
Source Fxstreet
- Litecoin price faces rejection by the 50-day EMA around $66, impending decline ahead.
- On-chain data paints a bearish picture as LTC's long-to-short ratio is below one.
- A daily candlestick close above $68.80 would invalidate the bearish thesis.
Litecoin (LTC) price failed to close above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around $66. At the time of writing, it trades slightly down by 1% at $61.96 on Friday. Moreover, LTC's long-to-short ratio paints a bearish picture as it stands below one.
Litecoin price is poised for a decline as it fails to close above 50-EMA
Litecoin price trades inside a falling wedge pattern formed by connecting multiple high and low levels with a trendline from mid-April. LTC faces resistance around the 50-day EMA at $66.23, which roughly coincides with the upper trendline of the falling wedge pattern. As of Friday, it trades slightly below 1% at $61.96.
If the 50-day EMA near $66.23 holds as resistance, LTC could decline 9% to retest its weekly support at $56.00.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Awesome Oscillator (AO) on the daily chart trade below their neutral levels of 50 and zero, respectively. Both indicators suggest weak momentum and an impending bearish trend on the horizon.
LTC/USDT daily chart
According to Coinglass's data, LTC's long-to-short ratio stands at 0.94. This ratio reflects bearish sentiment in the market, as the number below one suggests that more traders anticipate the price of the asset to decline, bolstering Litecoin's bearish outlook.
LTC long-to-short ratio
Despite the bearish outlook shown by technical analysis and on-chain data, if the Litecoin price produces a daily candlestick close above $68.80, it would invalidate the bearish thesis because it would post a higher high on the daily time frame. This could see Litecoin's price rise by 11% to revisit the July 29 high of $76.78.
Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline this weekend, briefly erasing its 2025 gains and dipping below its year-opening value of $93,507. The cryptocurrency fell to a low of $93,029 on Sunday, representing a 25% drop from its all-time high in October. Although it has rebounded slightly to around $94,209, the pressures on the market remain significant.
The downturn occurred despite the reopening of the U.S. government on Thursday, which many had hoped would provide essential support for crypto markets. This year initially appeared promising for cryptocurrencies, particularly after the inauguration of President Donald Trump, who has established the most pro-crypto administration thus far. However, ongoing political tensions—including Trump's tariff strategies and the recent government shutdown, lasting a historic 43 days—have contributed to several rapid price pullbacks for Bitcoin throughout the year.
Market dynamics are also being influenced by Bitcoin whales—investors holding large amounts of Bitcoin—who have been offloading portions of their assets, consequently stalling price rallies even as positive regulatory developments emerge. Despite these sell-offs, analysts from Glassnode argue that this behavior aligns with typical patterns seen among long-term investors during the concluding stages of bull markets, suggesting it is not indicative of a mass exodus.
Notably, Bitcoin is not alone in its struggles, as Ethereum and Solana have also recorded declines of 7.95% and 28.3%, respectively, since the start of the year, while numerous altcoins have faced even steeper losses.
Looking ahead, questions linger regarding the viability of the four-year cycle thesis, particularly given the increasing institutional support and regulatory frameworks now in place in the crypto landscape. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, remains optimistic, suggesting a potential Bitcoin resurgence in 2026 driven by the “debasement trade” thesis and a broader trend toward increased adoption of stablecoins, tokenization, and decentralized finance. Hougan emphasized the soundness of the underlying fundamentals, pointing to a positive outlook for the sector in the longer term.
