XRP price could gain nearly 12% as on-chain metrics signal recovery in Ripple

• XRP price could rally to $0.5930, a level that has acted as support for the altcoin since November 2023.
• Large wallet addresses holding between 10 million and 100 million XRP are scooping up the altcoin through the dip. 
• Gradual decline in profit-taking by whales and recovery in development activity indicate there is potential for XRP price recovery. 

XRP price declined by 8% in the past week. The altcoin’s price has been in a downward trend since November 13, 2023. On-chain metrics signal a recovery in XRP price in the short term. Drivers of XRP’s price decline are likely slowing down and the altcoin has potential to recover. 

XRP price is $0.5292 at the time of writing. 

Also read: Ripple responds to SEC filing, argues the regulator is asking for irrelevant information

XRP on-chain metrics paint bullish picture for recovery

XRP’s on-chain metrics, whale transaction count, volume, market value to realized value and network realized profit/loss support a recovery in the altcoin’s price. Whale transactions valued at $100,000 and higher have declined since January 3. The count has dropped from 1,332 on January 3 to 720 on January 22. 

Alongside the declining whale transactions, there is a decrease in whale’s shedding XRP at losses. While throughout January, large wallet investors have realized losses in XRP, the volume of transactions has declined. 

Whale transaction count (>$100,000) and Network Realized Profit/Loss. Source: Santiment 

Another key on-chain metric, XRP distribution among market participants shows bullish signs. XRP holders with 10 million to 100 million tokens have consistently accumulated the asset during dips and distributed when the price hits a local peak, in the past six months. This typical behavior is likely to repeat as whales engage in XRP accumulation in the ongoing price dip. 

XRP distribution among whales. Source: Santiment 

Development activity in the altcoin hit a six month low on 17 January, 2024, before starting a recovery. As development activity recovers there is a likelihood of recovery in XRP price. 

XRP development activity. Source: Santiment 

XRP price is likely to rally to $0.5930

XRP price has been in a downward trend that started in November 2023. In its recovery, XRP price is likely to tackle resistance at three levels, R1 at $0.5930, 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement of the decline between July 13 and August 17, 2023, at $0.6183 and R3 at $0.6474. 

A rally from the current price of $0.5295 to the first resistance represents a 11.97% rally in XRP price. 

XRP/USDT 1-day chart 

A daily candlestick close at $0.5007, the upper boundary of the imbalance zone could invalidate the bullish thesis for recovery in XRP price.