Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC sinks under $55,000 as Mt Gox prepares payment to creditors

• Mt Gox moved 47,228 BTC valued at $2.71 billion on Friday. 
• On-chain data shows miners' selling activity is increasing, signaling bearish momentum.
• German government continues moving Bitcoin to exchanges.

Bitcoin (BTC) price is having its worst week of the year, influenced by selling activity among BTC miners and heavy transfers of Bitcoins to exchanges by Mt Gox and the German Government. Technical indicators hint that BTC may undergo a further 7% decline to retest the $52,000 level.

Mt Gox moves 47,228 BTC valued at $2.71 billion

On June 24, Mt.Gox, the defunct cryptocurrency exchange embroiled in a 2014 exploitation, announced plans via Twitter to begin repaying creditors in July for losses totaling nearly $9 billion in Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash. 

Mt.Gox transferred 47,228 BTC valued at $2.71 billion from cold storage to a new wallet on Friday, according to Arkham Intelligence. Additionally, the defunct exchange moved 2,702 BTC worth $148.44 million to Bitbank, an exchange supporting the repayments. This activity potentially fueled FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt), contributing to Bitcoin's 5% price decline on Friday.

Bitcoin miners selling pressure the highest since late May

Bitcoin miners have been sending an average of 8,280.8 BTC per day to exchanges this week, with Thursday seeing the highest single-day outflow of 11,412 BTC since late May, according to CryptoQuant's Bitcoin Miner to Exchange Flow data.

The movement of funds to exchanges suggests miners may seek to cover expenses or capitalize on perceived overvaluation, contributing to selling pressure and implying a potential bearish outlook for Bitcoin's price.

Bitcoin Miner to Exchange Flow (Total) chart

German Government continues moving Bitcoins to exchanges

Arkham Intelligence said the German Government transferred 3,000 BTC valued at $175 million from its wallet on Thursday. Of this amount, 1,300 BTC worth $76 million were sent to Coinbase, Bitstamp, and Kraken. In comparison, the remaining 1,700 BTC worth $99 million are likely being moved to a deposit for institutional services or over-the-counter (OTC) transactions.

Throughout the week, German authorities have transferred 2,344.61 BTC valued at $141.1 million to Coinbase, Bitstamp, Flow Traders, and Kraken. This substantial movement has potentially heightened FUD among traders, contributing to Bitcoin's more than 12% price decline this week.

Tron founder Justin Sun disclosed his readiness on X to negotiate with the German Government to acquire their remaining BTC off-market, aiming to mitigate any adverse market impact.

Sun, a prominent figure in the cryptocurrency realm, reportedly manages over $1 billion in crypto assets, per Arkham Intelligence. In contrast, the German Government holds approximately 42,274 BTC, valued at around $2.29 billion.

Bitcoin momentum favors bears

Bitcoin's price encountered resistance at the daily level of $63,956 on Monday, resulting in a 9.2% decline over the next three days. By Thursday's close, it had fallen below the weekly support of $58,375. At the time of writing on Friday, it trades around $54,500, reflecting a further decrease of 4.7% from the previous day's level.

If BTC's price closes below its May 1 low of $56,522, it could decline 7.3% to revisit its daily support at $52,266.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Awesome Oscillator (AO) on the daily chart support this bearish thesis, as both indicators are below their respective neutral levels of 50 and zero. This suggests continued momentum favoring bears, potentially leading to a further decline in the Bitcoin price. 

BTC/USDT daily chart

However, if BTC closes above the $63,956 daily resistance level and forms a higher high in the daily time frame, it could indicate that bullish sentiment could make a comeback. Such a development could trigger a 5% rise in Bitcoin's price to revisit its next weekly resistance at $67,147.