Bitcoin Enters Accumulation Zone as 41 of 45 On-Chain Indicators Hit Cycle Lows
Bitcoin (BTC) has entered a historical accumulation zone. Glassnode data shows 41 of 45 on-chain indicators sitting in the bottom two quintiles of their cycle ranges.
CryptoQuant’s Adaptive Sell-side Risk Ratio tells the same story from a different angle. However, both data sources stop short of calling a confirmed bottom for the current bear market.
41 of 45 On-Chain Indicators Point to Capitulation Territory
Glassnode’s Bitcoin Cycle Composite compresses 45 on-chain indicators into a single score from 0 to 100. The gauge currently reads 19.9, deep in the cold zone reserved for capitulation phases. It last visited this area in late 2022, after the FTX collapse.
Bitcoin Cycle Composite time series at 19.9, the coldest reading since late 2022 / Source: X
The move happened fast. According to pseudonymous analyst n3ocortex, who published the dataset on X, the composite median stood near 33 three months ago. Today, it has slipped to roughly 20, and 41 of 45 indicators sit in the bottom two quintiles.
Bitcoin Cycle Board Snapshot showing 41 of 45 on-chain indicators in the bottom two quintiles / Source: X
Valuation and pricing models show the deepest readings. All figures reflect approximate percentile ranks within each metric’s history.
| Indicator | Percentile rank (approx.) |
|---|---|
| Price / Power Law | 4th |
| Coinbase Premium 7d | 6th |
| Dormancy Flow | 8th |
| Reserve Risk | 8th |
| MVRV Median | 8th |
| Composite (median) | 20th |
Still, the analyst avoids calling this the definitive floor.
“Today it sits in its coldest stretch since FTX: late in the bear, but not yet the unanimous deep blue that previously marked a floor.”
A few gauges even flash red, including Liveliness and the share of supply last active over one year ago. However, the analyst argues that custody rotation structurally inflates these coin age metrics, which weakens their euphoria signal.
Sell-Side Risk Ratio Falls to the 3rd Percentile of the Cycle
CryptoQuant data adds independent confirmation. The platform’s Adaptive Sell-side Risk Ratio has dropped to 0.031, the 3rd percentile of the current halving cycle. In simple terms, the indicator is lower than on 97% of days since April 2024.
Moreover, this is no single-day anomaly. The ratio has stayed below the 25th percentile since late January, while its two-month average has held under 5%. CryptoQuant describes this as a prolonged phase of market compression and repricing.
Bitcoin Adaptive Sell-side Risk Ratio percentile rank at cycle lows / Source: CryptoQuant
The report placed Bitcoin near $62,000, almost 50% below its October 2025 peak. The price has since recovered to around $64,587, up 0.9% in the past 24 hours, according to BeInCrypto market data.
Accumulation Zone Does Not Mean the Bottom Is In
Historically, similar readings appeared only during the late stages of bear markets. Therefore, they improve the long-term risk-reward profile rather than guarantee an imminent reversal.
In the 2018-2019 and 2022-2023 cycles, the ratio hugged its lower boundary for months. Prices kept moving inside wide ranges and periodically set new lows during those stretches.
The same caution applies to the Glassnode board. Past cycle floors arrived only when nearly every indicator turned deep blue at once. The current board remains one step short of that unanimous capitulation signal.
Other models cluster around similar conclusions. BeInCrypto’s earlier analysis of Bitcoin’s final bear leg pointed to a potential bottom near $44,000. Benjamin Cowen’s latest memo targets the same area in Q4 2026. Meanwhile, large wallets scooped up 40,100 BTC in nine days in late July, suggesting some big players are positioning early.
For now, the data support patient accumulation rather than aggressive bottom calls. Either the remaining indicators join the capitulation cluster and confirm a floor, or another leg down resets the clock.
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