$36 Million in Cardano Whale Buying Meets a Reversal Setup — What Comes Next?

Cardano price remains under pressure on higher timeframes, still down around 12% month-on-month. But beneath the weak surface, a different story is forming. Momentum is stabilizing, selling pressure is easing, and one of the largest Cardano whale cohorts has started adding aggressively.

This shift is not random. It aligns closely with a bullish divergence, a structure that has previously preceded sharp upside moves in ADA.

Bullish RSI Divergence Hints At a Potential Trend Reversal

The first piece of the setup appears on the daily chart.

Between November 21 and December 18, the Cardano price made a lower low, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) printed a higher low. RSI measures momentum. When the price weakens, but the RSI improves, it shows sellers are losing strength even though the price is still falling. This is a classic bullish RSI divergence, often associated with trend reversals rather than short-lived bounces.

A similar structure appeared earlier this cycle between late November and early December. After that divergence held, Cardano rallied nearly 30% within eight days.

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RSI does not work in isolation. What matters now is whether on-chain behavior confirms that sellers are actually stepping back.

Whales Step In as Coin Activity Drops

On-chain data shows a strong confirmation.

Wallets holding 100 million to 1 billion ADA, Cardano’s second-largest whale cohort, have increased their holdings since December 20. Their balances rose from 3.74 billion ADA to 3.84 billion ADA, an addition of roughly 100 million ADA. At current prices, that equals about $36 million added during a period of weak price action.

This buying lines up directly with changes in the Spent Coins Age Band metric. This metric tracks how many coins are being moved, which often reflects selling activity. On December 16, spent coins peaked, and whales were distributing supply. As spent coins dropped, whale accumulation resumed.

The pattern is consistent.

When coin activity rises (possibly selling pressure), whales step back. When selling activity fades, whales add.

That behavior suggests large holders are reacting to reducing sell pressure, not chasing price strength. This strengthens the bullish RSI divergence signal, showing that the weakening sell pressure is getting support from big whales.

Key Cardano Price Levels That Decide the Outcome

Even with improving momentum and whale accumulation, price confirmation still matters.

For Cardano to move beyond a reversal attempt, it must reclaim key resistance levels. The first meaningful strength signal appears above $0.44, but the real confirmation sits near $0.47. A clean break above this zone would align closely with the prior post-divergence rally and open the door toward $0.50, expected to be a key psychological level.

If momentum carries through and whale accumulation continues, $0.50–$0.55 becomes achievable under supportive market conditions.

Downside risk remains clear. If ADA loses $0.34, the reversal thesis weakens sharply. A break below that level would signal that selling pressure has returned. And history suggests that whales might start selling at that time.