What Bitcoin Needs to Do to Get Back to the $100K–$120K Zone, Copper Reveals

UK digital asset custodian Copper believes Bitcoin’s months-long slide is approaching its final stage, with market dynamics now resembling “late downtrend behaviour,” the phase that historically precedes major reversals.

Copper, the London-based institutional crypto custodian founded by former UK Chancellor Philip Hammond, said in its Wednesday Opening Bell note that the mechanics driving Bitcoin’s decline have changed.

According to the firm, the early part of the current downtrend was dominated by high sensitivity to ETF flows, redemptions reliably pushed prices lower. But that relationship has now broken down.

ETF Influence Has Collapsed — A Key Late-Downtrend Signal

Copper’s analysts say the 30-day elasticity between ETF flows and returns has dropped to one of the lowest levels of the year, a tell-tale sign that the market has already absorbed heavy selling.

“It does not confirm a reversal,” Copper wrote, “but it does confirm that the straightforward, flow-driven part of the move is behind us.”

Copper has grouped Bitcoin ETF holdings into simple “bands,” structural zones showing where Bitcoin’s price tends to settle depending on how much Bitcoin ETFs are holding. They suggest that these bands have been surprisingly consistent:

• $40K–$60K: anchored by lower ETF ownership
• $70K–$90K: mid-level accumulation
• $100K–$120K: the upper structural plateau

These, Copper says, are not random clusters. They behave like stair-step price shelves that Bitcoin climbs as ETF demand grows.

“As ETFs accumulated more Bitcoin, Bitcoin kept relocating into higher price zones, almost like stepping up a staircase,” Copper analysts said.

Copper’s analysis shows that when ETFs first push Bitcoin into a new ownership band, the next 10 days historically see 10–13% gains. The market adjusts to the new level of institutional ownership during this period. However, once ETF inflows stabilize within that band, forward returns tend to flatten, meaning prices stop moving sharply and the market enters a more sideways phase.

Market is absorbing ETF selling

Bitcoin is currently trading around $86,000, but Copper says ETF holdings of BTC are mostly concentrated at the top of their historical range, in the highest ownership band, historically associated with the $100K–$120K price zone.

According to Copper, it’s not just the band itself that matters, but how Bitcoin behaves within it.

“The forward behaviour inside these shelves is what matters for the outlook,” the analysts said. “When ETFs first enter a new ownership band, the next ten days historically produce strong upside follow through, on average between 10–13%. Once a band becomes fully occupied, forward returns flatten to roughly 1–2%. And in the highest band, the one we are in now, the average ten day return actually turns slightly negative. This is the only band in the entire dataset with a negative forward return profile.”

This, Copper says, explains why Bitcoin has sometimes risen even on negative ETF flow days, gains are absorbed, but without sustained inflows the market cannot build a new uptrend. According to the analysts, the market is in the final stage of the downtrend. A return to the $100K–$120K range depends on ETF flows shifting significantly, either retracing to a lower band for short-term upside, or pushing higher with strong accumulation to trigger a genuine breakout.

“Until ETFs fall back into a lower band or break into a higher band with sustained inflows, the market is likely to move mostly sideways with a slight downward bias. We are in the late phase of the downtrend, but not yet in the early phase of a new uptrend,” the analysts added.

Coinbase Signals Positive Developments in Europe

While short-term signals remain mixed, the broader European institutional landscape is telling a different story.

Keith Grose, the new CEO of Coinbase UK, says the region is undergoing a structural shift in how regulated institutions engage with digital assets. One example: the Czech National Bank’s recent decision to test a small, ring-fenced digital asset portfolio, one of the first controlled pilots by an EU central bank.

Grose says moves like this are early but meaningful.

“Market conditions are shifting as institutions across Europe take a more structured and regulated approach to digital assets,” he said. “We’re seeing clearer frameworks, stronger infrastructure, and early examples of central banks running controlled pilots… including the Czech National Bank’s recent test.”

He adds that while the public may not yet feel the shift — “You’re not paying for groceries with Bitcoin in the UK yet” — Europe is quietly building the foundation for digital assets to become a meaningful part of future financial and payments infrastructure.

“That makes the need for safe, compliant and transparent infrastructure more important than ever,” Grose said.