October 11 crypto crash may have been a coordinated hit on Binance, says Colin Wu

Source Cryptopolitan

The October 11 crash that wiped billions from the crypto market may not have been an accident. It appeared to be a planned strike aimed straight at Binance and one of its biggest market makers, according to analysis from Colin Wu.

The weak spot was Binance’s Unified Account margin system, which let traders use certain volatile assets as collateral. That design flaw gave attackers a clear target, and they hit it hard.

Instead of sticking to standard USDT or coin-margined positions, Binance allowed traders to post proof-of-stake derivatives and yield-bearing stablecoins as collateral. The three assets that took the worst hits were USDE, wBETH, and BnSOL.

Their liquidation prices came from Binance’s own spot order book, not from assets with hard pegs. BUSD, however, stayed solid thanks to its fixed peg, and on-chain Aave oracle data for USDE still showed a clean 1:1 ratio, which meant the chaos came entirely from Binance’s internal pricing system.

Collateral collapse triggers mass liquidations

When Bitcoin and altcoins started tumbling, the damage multiplied. Coin-margined traders were already bleeding, and the sudden depegging of collateral killed their remaining margin value. USDE crashed to $0.65, wBETH plunged to $0.20, and BnSOL hit $0.13.

Even hedged positions didn’t stand a chance. As margin balances evaporated, liquidations exploded across Binance futures. Traders got wiped out, and market makers were forced to close everything, dumping their holdings just to survive.

The problem got worse because of Binance’s 12% yield program, which pushed large stablecoin holders to use Bn lending products for recursive USDE borrowing. That setup amplified exposure. When the crash came, it dragged those leveraged loops down with it.

On-chain redemptions for USDE stayed fine, but prices on Binance plunged way below other exchanges, most stayed near $0.9, while Binance’s prices fell far deeper. Even altcoins on Binance hit abnormal lows, a sign of large-scale forced liquidations.

The scale was massive. Within 24 hours, Binance recorded $3.5–4 billion in trading volume from USDE, wBETH, and BnSOL. Estimated losses ranged between $500 million and $1 billion. Covering that would mean Binance absorbing a billion-dollar hit.

Analysts pointed to a clear failure in how margin collateral and liquidation pricing were structured, flaws that made the system easy to exploit.

Timing exposes planning behind the attack

What makes this look deliberate is timing. The attack happened right between Binance’s oracle price update announcement on October 6 and the actual rollout on October 14.

That gave attackers eight full days to prepare. Binance’s risk team had noticed some exposure, but the delay created an open window, and the exploit slipped right through it.

Experts warned that for PoS-based assets, oracles should keep a hard floor price, even with liquidity discounts. Relying only on spot prices inside an exchange, especially one where both counterparty and operational risks are internal, is asking for trouble.

The question of whether USDE is truly backed 1:1 is still hanging. The Luna-UST collapse proved how bad things can get when pegs fail. Back then, Binance lost money defending UST near $0.7.

If the exchange insists on keeping USDE as margin collateral, limiting how much can be pledged would make more sense than pretending everything is stable.

Tom Lee, chairman of BitMine, told CNBC the market’s pullback was “overdue” after a 36% gain since April. He said the VIX jumped 29%, calling it one of the top 1% largest single-day volatility spikes in history. He called the sell-off “a healthy shakeout,” saying short-term returns could turn positive soon.

Investor @mindaoyang on X compared this crash to LUNA’s implosion. He said the danger comes from exchanges using non-fiat stablecoins as high-value collateral, letting risk spread everywhere.

He warned that mixing market-based pricing with high collateral ratios is the most dangerous setup, especially when centralized exchanges have poor arbitrage efficiency. He added that LSD-type assets, those yield-bearing tokens disguised as “stable,” face the same problem: they look calm on the surface but move like volatile crypto underneath.

Join Bybit now and claim a $50 bonus in minutes

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
placeholder
Ethereum (ETH) Price Closes Above $3,900 — Is a New All-Time High Possible Before 2024 Ends?Once again, the price of Ethereum (ETH) has risen above $3,900. This bounce has hinted at a further price increase for the altcoin before the end of the year.
Author  Beincrypto
Dec 17, 2024
Once again, the price of Ethereum (ETH) has risen above $3,900. This bounce has hinted at a further price increase for the altcoin before the end of the year.
placeholder
Ethereum slides below $3,000 as sellers defend $3,020 and $2,880 becomes the key lineEthereum fell below $3,000 after failing at $3,200, with resistance at $3,020 and key support at $2,880; a break lower could target $2,800 and $2,750, while a rebound needs $3,120–$3,150.
Author  Mitrade
Jan 21, Wed
Ethereum fell below $3,000 after failing at $3,200, with resistance at $3,020 and key support at $2,880; a break lower could target $2,800 and $2,750, while a rebound needs $3,120–$3,150.
placeholder
Bitcoin’s Whale Map Shifts as BTC Drops Below $90,000Bitcoin fell below $90,000 to around $88,300 as risk-off headlines hit markets, while on-chain data shows new whales now lead Realized Cap with a ~$98,000 cost basis and ~$6B unrealized losses.
Author  Mitrade
Jan 22, Thu
Bitcoin fell below $90,000 to around $88,300 as risk-off headlines hit markets, while on-chain data shows new whales now lead Realized Cap with a ~$98,000 cost basis and ~$6B unrealized losses.
placeholder
Gold moves away from record high as safe-haven demand fades on easing trade war concernsGold (XAU/USD) is seen extending the previous day's modest pullback from the vicinity of the $4,900 mark, or a fresh all-time peak, and drifting lower through the Asian session on Thursday.
Author  FXStreet
Jan 22, Thu
Gold (XAU/USD) is seen extending the previous day's modest pullback from the vicinity of the $4,900 mark, or a fresh all-time peak, and drifting lower through the Asian session on Thursday.
placeholder
Top 3 Price Forecast: BTC Shows Early Stabilization; ETH and XRP Still Look HeavyBTC trades near $89,900 after holding $87,787 support and eyeing the $91,942 50-day EMA, while ETH (~$2,964) remains capped below $3,017 and XRP (~$1.91) keeps downside risk toward $1.77 after failing to reclaim key levels.
Author  Mitrade
Jan 23, Fri
BTC trades near $89,900 after holding $87,787 support and eyeing the $91,942 50-day EMA, while ETH (~$2,964) remains capped below $3,017 and XRP (~$1.91) keeps downside risk toward $1.77 after failing to reclaim key levels.
goTop
quote