Bitcoin Derivative Pressure Score Hits 30%: Downside Risk Signal

Bitcoin is at a crossroads after failing to reclaim higher supply levels, raising concerns among investors about the strength of its current trend. The price has slipped below key demand zones, and bullish momentum is showing signs of exhaustion. For now, traders are watching closely as the market decides whether BTC can recover or if a deeper correction is underway.

The mood across the market has shifted, with many analysts warning that Bitcoin could soon test the $100K level. Such a move would mark one of the most significant corrections of this cycle, sparking fear among short-term participants while possibly presenting opportunities for longer-term investors.

Top analyst Axel Adler has shed light on the situation, pointing to data that highlights persistent derivative pressure. According to him, Bitcoin’s baseline trend suggests pullbacks are being driven by long de-leveraging. With derivative markets heavily influencing price action, this pressure score — currently sitting in an elevated zone — keeps the market vulnerable to downside jolts.

Bitcoin Open Interest Signals Risks Ahead

According to top analyst Axel Adler, Bitcoin’s current weakness is strongly tied to derivative market dynamics. He highlights that the Bitcoin Open Interest Pressure Score sits at 30%, placing it firmly in the upper band. Historically, this level reflects elevated risk conditions, where the market becomes vulnerable to sudden downside jolts. In such environments, leveraged longs face pressure, and any sharp decline in spot prices tends to trigger waves of liquidations that amplify volatility.

Adler points out that the presence of orange cluster markers on the price chart reinforces this risk. These clusters typically favor continued sideways or lower movement as the market undergoes a process of long de-leveraging. Essentially, traders who overextended during Bitcoin’s surge above $120K are now being forced out of positions, which weighs on momentum and creates a ceiling on recovery attempts.

Adding further pressure is the recent capital rotation trend dominating crypto markets. Institutions and whales have been observed selling portions of their BTC holdings to accumulate Ethereum, a strategy supported by growing ETH adoption and whale activity. This shift of liquidity has likely contributed to Bitcoin’s struggle to hold above the $110K level, weakening bullish conviction.

If Bitcoin fails to reclaim lost ground and derivative pressure remains elevated, a test of the $100K zone becomes increasingly probable. Conversely, stabilization and absorption of selling could reset leverage and prepare BTC for its next major move. Either way, market participants should brace for heightened volatility.

Price Action Details: Testing Pivotal Level

Bitcoin (BTC) is showing signs of stabilization after intense volatility in recent sessions. The chart highlights BTC trading at $110,488, attempting to reclaim ground after dipping below the $110K threshold. This level has now become a pivotal battleground between bulls and bears, with the next moves likely determining short-term direction.

The 50-day moving average sits above current price action, near $115,755, reinforcing the overhead resistance zone. BTC must regain this level to confirm strength and attempt a retest of the $123,217 resistance, which remains the major hurdle for continuation toward new highs. On the downside, the 200-day moving average, currently around $101,388, acts as a critical safety net. A decisive breakdown below that point could accelerate a deeper correction, with the $100K level serving as psychological support.

The structure suggests the market is in a consolidation phase, digesting the steep rally earlier in the cycle. If bulls manage to hold above $110K and build momentum, a move toward $115K and eventually $123K could follow. However, failure here may reopen the door for tests of lower demand zones closer to $105K–$101K.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView