IEA: In the absence of major disruption, Oil markets in 2025 look well supplied

In its monthly oil market report published on Tuesday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) noted that “in reference to Israel-Iran conflict, in the absence of major disruption, oil markets in 2025 look well supplied.”

Additional takeaways

Trims 2025 world oil demand growth forecast to 720,000 barrels per day (prev. 740,000 bpd).

Lowers 2026 average oil demand growth forecast to 740,000 bpd (prev. 760,000 bpd) citing challenging economic outlook and cleaner energy uptake.

World oil supply to rise by 1.8 million bpd in 2025 (prev. 1.6 million bpd rise).

Global oil demand to plateau around 105.5 million bpd by end of this decade.

US oil demand in 2030 will be 1.1 million bpd higher than previous forecast due to lower gasoline prices, loss of momentum in EV adoption.

Global oil production capacity is forecast to reach 114.7 million bpd by 2030, far above expected demand.

Oil market is expected to be comfortably supplied through 2030, barring major disruptions.

Market reaction

Following these findings from the report, WTI faces headwinds once again above $71.  At the time of writing, the US Oil still adds 1.37% on the day to trade near $71.