Gold Price Forecast: Further XAU/USD recovery likely to be delayed – Commerzbank
Source Fxstreet
Gold (XAU/USD) has put the previous week's setback behind it and established itself above $2,000. Economists at Commerzbank analyze the yellow metal’s outlook.
XAU/USD year-end forecast lowered by $50 to $2,100
The fact that the US Federal Reserve will probably not cut interest rates until later in the year was quickly shrugged off: after all, postponed is not cancelled.
Nevertheless, our new forecast, according to which the US economy will avoid a recession and the Fed will cut interest rates later and less sharply, is likely to have consequences for the Gold price.
The rise in the Gold price that we expect will be delayed and less pronounced than previously thought. We are therefore lowering our XAU/USD forecast for the end of the year by $50 to $2,100.
Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Gold rose 4.51% to $4,074.90 while Brent fell 16.42% to $98.32 in the same five sessions — two inflation hedges, opposite answers. Around them, the gold-silver ratio sits at 78.7 and copper fell 3.72%. Three regime signals, two of them close to flipping, define what commodity traders must re-price before Tuesday's CPI.
The CPI that has no year-over-year number is the one that decides DecemberOctober CPI lands on Nov 10 at 13:30 GMT, and it will be published without a year-over-year figure: BLS never collected October 2025 prices during the federal shutdown. Consensus is +0.3% headline and +0.2% core month-on-month, against +0.6% and +0.3% in September. With December hike odds at 77%, the month-on-month print is now the whole story, and $4,197–4,202 on gold and 4.86% on the 10-year are the levels that price it.
October CPI lands on Nov 10 at 13:30 GMT, and it will be published without a year-over-year figure: BLS never collected October 2025 prices during the federal shutdown. Consensus is +0.3% headline and +0.2% core month-on-month, against +0.6% and +0.3% in September. With December hike odds at 77%, the month-on-month print is now the whole story, and $4,197–4,202 on gold and 4.86% on the 10-year are the levels that price it.
On Tuesday (Nov. 10) Eastern Time, the U.S. will release the October Consumer Price Index (CPI), a key inflation reading ahead of the Federal Reserve's December interest rate decision. Th
Get the latest gold price analysis, forex gold insights, and XAU/USD analysis for November 10, 2026. Read on for the details.
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