Gold Price Forecast: Further XAU/USD recovery likely to be delayed – Commerzbank

Source Fxstreet

Gold (XAU/USD) has put the previous week's setback behind it and established itself above $2,000. Economists at Commerzbank analyze the yellow metal’s outlook.

XAU/USD year-end forecast lowered by $50 to $2,100

The fact that the US Federal Reserve will probably not cut interest rates until later in the year was quickly shrugged off: after all, postponed is not cancelled. 

Nevertheless, our new forecast, according to which the US economy will avoid a recession and the Fed will cut interest rates later and less sharply, is likely to have consequences for the Gold price.

The rise in the Gold price that we expect will be delayed and less pronounced than previously thought. We are therefore lowering our XAU/USD forecast for the end of the year by $50 to $2,100.

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
placeholder
Dollar presses 102 as the 10-year yield sits at 5.14% — and October hike odds are only 17%The dollar index closed at 101.99 (+0.20%) on Monday after briefly topping 102.07, while the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.14% and the 2-year hit 4.774% — yet futures price only about a 17% chance of a hike at the October 27-28 FOMC, versus roughly 90% for December. The driver is a global bond selloff, not a Fed repricing: France's 10-year OAT jumped to 4.84% ~ 4.94% and the OAT-Bund spread widened to 140 ~ 146bp. Here are the levels, the cross-asset read-through and what to watch.
Author  Irene Q.
Oct 20, Tue
The dollar index closed at 101.99 (+0.20%) on Monday after briefly topping 102.07, while the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.14% and the 2-year hit 4.774% — yet futures price only about a 17% chance of a hike at the October 27-28 FOMC, versus roughly 90% for December. The driver is a global bond selloff, not a Fed repricing: France's 10-year OAT jumped to 4.84% ~ 4.94% and the OAT-Bund spread widened to 140 ~ 146bp. Here are the levels, the cross-asset read-through and what to watch.
placeholder
Tesla Q3 Earnings Preview: Can Auto Margins Stabilize? Wall Street’s Highest Price Target at $550Tesla (TSLA) will report its third-quarter 2026 financial results after the U.S. stock market close on October 21, Eastern Time, and host an earnings conference call at 17:30 that day. Th
Author  TradingKey
Oct 20, Tue
Tesla (TSLA) will report its third-quarter 2026 financial results after the U.S. stock market close on October 21, Eastern Time, and host an earnings conference call at 17:30 that day. Th
placeholder
Gold Price Analysis Today | Forex Gold Analysis | XAU/USD Analysis - October 21, 2026Get the latest gold price analysis, forex gold insights, and XAU/USD analysis for October 21, 2026. Read on for the details.
Author  Mitrade
Yesterday 02: 40
Get the latest gold price analysis, forex gold insights, and XAU/USD analysis for October 21, 2026. Read on for the details.
placeholder
The Dow gained 500 points and the two AI names that matter fell after hours — Netflix's guide is the tellThe Dow closed 529.85 points higher at 52,495.88 (+1.02%) and the VIX fell 6.13% to 17.31, but the two stocks that carry the AI trade moved the other way after Tuesday's close: Netflix slipped to $64.74 (-5.8%) after guiding Q4 EPS of $0.67, below the street, while SpaceX jumped about 8% to near $160 on its first profit as a public company and revenue up 161%. Netflix is now below its 52-week low of $65.08. Here are the numbers, the $65 / $70 levels and the two catalysts that matter this week.
Author  Irene Q.
Yesterday 05: 56
The Dow closed 529.85 points higher at 52,495.88 (+1.02%) and the VIX fell 6.13% to 17.31, but the two stocks that carry the AI trade moved the other way after Tuesday's close: Netflix slipped to $64.74 (-5.8%) after guiding Q4 EPS of $0.67, below the street, while SpaceX jumped about 8% to near $160 on its first profit as a public company and revenue up 161%. Netflix is now below its 52-week low of $65.08. Here are the numbers, the $65 / $70 levels and the two catalysts that matter this week.
placeholder
Gold Price Analysis Today | Forex Gold Analysis | XAU/USD Analysis - October 22, 2026Get the latest gold price analysis, forex gold insights, and XAU/USD analysis for October 22, 2026. Read on for the details.
Author  Mitrade
4 hours ago
Get the latest gold price analysis, forex gold insights, and XAU/USD analysis for October 22, 2026. Read on for the details.
Related Instrument
goTop
quote