Gold Price Forecast: Further XAU/USD recovery likely to be delayed – Commerzbank
Source Fxstreet
Gold (XAU/USD) has put the previous week's setback behind it and established itself above $2,000. Economists at Commerzbank analyze the yellow metal’s outlook.
XAU/USD year-end forecast lowered by $50 to $2,100
The fact that the US Federal Reserve will probably not cut interest rates until later in the year was quickly shrugged off: after all, postponed is not cancelled.
Nevertheless, our new forecast, according to which the US economy will avoid a recession and the Fed will cut interest rates later and less sharply, is likely to have consequences for the Gold price.
The rise in the Gold price that we expect will be delayed and less pronounced than previously thought. We are therefore lowering our XAU/USD forecast for the end of the year by $50 to $2,100.
Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Recommended Articles
Get the latest gold price analysis, forex gold insights, and XAU/USD analysis for October 20, 2026. Read on for the details.
Dollar presses 102 as the 10-year yield sits at 5.14% — and October hike odds are only 17%The dollar index closed at 101.99 (+0.20%) on Monday after briefly topping 102.07, while the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.14% and the 2-year hit 4.774% — yet futures price only about a 17% chance of a hike at the October 27-28 FOMC, versus roughly 90% for December. The driver is a global bond selloff, not a Fed repricing: France's 10-year OAT jumped to 4.84% ~ 4.94% and the OAT-Bund spread widened to 140 ~ 146bp. Here are the levels, the cross-asset read-through and what to watch.
The dollar index closed at 101.99 (+0.20%) on Monday after briefly topping 102.07, while the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.14% and the 2-year hit 4.774% — yet futures price only about a 17% chance of a hike at the October 27-28 FOMC, versus roughly 90% for December. The driver is a global bond selloff, not a Fed repricing: France's 10-year OAT jumped to 4.84% ~ 4.94% and the OAT-Bund spread widened to 140 ~ 146bp. Here are the levels, the cross-asset read-through and what to watch.
Get the latest gold price analysis, forex gold insights, and XAU/USD analysis for October 22, 2026. Read on for the details.
The Fed will sit still on October 28 — but 100 of 100 economists now expect a December hikeA Reuters poll run October 16-20 found 94 of 100 economists expecting the Fed to hold at 3.75-4.00% on October 28 — and all 100 expecting a hike in December, against less than half a month earlier. The market is close to the same price, with CME FedWatch at roughly 17% for October and 82.8% for December. With the Fed in blackout since October 17, here are the five dates that decide the rest of the year, what each one is priced for, and the two directions each can take.
A Reuters poll run October 16-20 found 94 of 100 economists expecting the Fed to hold at 3.75-4.00% on October 28 — and all 100 expecting a hike in December, against less than half a month earlier. The market is close to the same price, with CME FedWatch at roughly 17% for October and 82.8% for December. With the Fed in blackout since October 17, here are the five dates that decide the rest of the year, what each one is priced for, and the two directions each can take.
Get the latest gold price analysis, forex gold insights, and XAU/USD analysis for October 23, 2026. Read on for the details.
Related Instrument
