Aluminum continues to rally on China growth – ING

LME aluminum ended last week on a strong footing, boosted by signs of economic recovery in China following a series of stimulus measures over the last couple of months. China’s economic data released last Friday showed China’s GDP in 2024 expanded 5%, meeting the government’s target. The final quarter of the year saw growth of 5.4%, which was the fastest pace in six quarters, ING's commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note.

LME aluminum ends last week on a strong footing

"The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) numbers released last week showed monthly primary aluminum production in China rising 4.2% YoY to 3.8mt in December 2024 primarily due to the additions from new production capacity in the Northwestern region of Xinjiang. Cumulatively, production rose 4.6% YoY to around 44mt over Jan’24 – Dec’24. In other metals, monthly crude steel production rose 11.8% YoY to 76mt last month. However, cumulative output fell 1.7% YoY to 1,005.1mt in 2024, the lowest in five years as weakness in the property market continues to weigh on steel demand."

"Weekly data from the Shanghai Futures Exchange (ShFE) showed inventories for base metals remaining mixed over the last week. Aluminum weekly stocks fell by 3,694 tons for a twelfth consecutive week to 178,474 tons as of last Friday, the lowest since 23 February 2024. Zinc inventories decreased by 294 tons (-1.4% week-on-week) for a ninth straight week to 21,040 tons (the lowest since 30 December 2022), while lead inventories declined by 1,351 tons for a fifth consecutive week to 43,503 tons at the end of last week. Meanwhile, weekly inventories for copper and nickel rose by 12.9% WoW and 5.2% WoW, respectively."