Oil: Uncertainty over how oil supplies evolve in the months ahead – ING

Source Fxstreet

Oil prices fell yesterday with ICE Brent down 1.35% and settling below US$80/bbl. Reports of a potential ceasefire between Israel and Hamas would have supported this move. This is the first daily decline since the US announced stricter sanctions against the Russian energy sector. It is still unclear what the impact of these sanctions will be on Oil flows, ING's commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note.

Oil prices fall to settle below US$80/bbl

"However, buyers of Russian oil have been looking at alternatives, in case these sanctions turn out to be disruptive. Any significant impact, however, is likely to be short-lived with Russia eventually finding ways to circumvent these latest sanctions. The uncertainty over the impact means that oil prices will likely be better supported than initially expected through the first quarter of the year."

"Oil prices are trading firmer in early morning trading in Asia today after API numbers showed that US crude oil inventories fell more than expected over the last week. US crude oil inventories fell by 2.6m barrels. However, this is where the support ended in the release. Cushing crude oil stocks increased by 600k barrels, although inventories are still historically low."

"The EIA yesterday released its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, where it marginally increased its US crude oil production estimate for 2025 from 13.52m b/d to 13.55m b/d, growing by around 340k b/d year-on-year. The EIA also released its first production estimates for 2026 and expects US crude output to grow by just 70k b/d YoY to 13.62m b/d."

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
placeholder
Bitcoin CME gaps at $35,000, $27,000 and $21,000, which one gets filled first?Prioritize filling the $27,000 gap and even try higher.
Author  FXStreet
Aug 22, 2023
Prioritize filling the $27,000 gap and even try higher.
placeholder
Elon Musk’s xAI and Neuralink Launch New Funding Rounds​Billionaire Elon Musk recently raised funds for his two high-profile tech companies, xAI and Neuralink.
Author  Insights
Jun 03, 2025
​Billionaire Elon Musk recently raised funds for his two high-profile tech companies, xAI and Neuralink.
placeholder
Bitcoin briefly loses 2025 gains as crypto plunges over the weekend.Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline this weekend, briefly erasing its 2025 gains and dipping below its year-opening value of $93,507. The cryptocurrency fell to a low of $93,029 on Sunday, representing a 25% drop from its all-time high in October. Although it has rebounded slightly to around $94,209, the pressures on the market remain significant. The downturn occurred despite the reopening of the U.S. government on Thursday, which many had hoped would provide essential support for crypto markets. This year initially appeared promising for cryptocurrencies, particularly after the inauguration of President Donald Trump, who has established the most pro-crypto administration thus far. However, ongoing political tensions—including Trump's tariff strategies and the recent government shutdown, lasting a historic 43 days—have contributed to several rapid price pullbacks for Bitcoin throughout the year. Market dynamics are also being influenced by Bitcoin whales—investors holding large amounts of Bitcoin—who have been offloading portions of their assets, consequently stalling price rallies even as positive regulatory developments emerge. Despite these sell-offs, analysts from Glassnode argue that this behavior aligns with typical patterns seen among long-term investors during the concluding stages of bull markets, suggesting it is not indicative of a mass exodus. Notably, Bitcoin is not alone in its struggles, as Ethereum and Solana have also recorded declines of 7.95% and 28.3%, respectively, since the start of the year, while numerous altcoins have faced even steeper losses. Looking ahead, questions linger regarding the viability of the four-year cycle thesis, particularly given the increasing institutional support and regulatory frameworks now in place in the crypto landscape. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, remains optimistic, suggesting a potential Bitcoin resurgence in 2026 driven by the “debasement trade” thesis and a broader trend toward increased adoption of stablecoins, tokenization, and decentralized finance. Hougan emphasized the soundness of the underlying fundamentals, pointing to a positive outlook for the sector in the longer term.
Author  Mitrade
Nov 17, 2025
Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline this weekend, briefly erasing its 2025 gains and dipping below its year-opening value of $93,507. The cryptocurrency fell to a low of $93,029 on Sunday, representing a 25% drop from its all-time high in October. Although it has rebounded slightly to around $94,209, the pressures on the market remain significant. The downturn occurred despite the reopening of the U.S. government on Thursday, which many had hoped would provide essential support for crypto markets. This year initially appeared promising for cryptocurrencies, particularly after the inauguration of President Donald Trump, who has established the most pro-crypto administration thus far. However, ongoing political tensions—including Trump's tariff strategies and the recent government shutdown, lasting a historic 43 days—have contributed to several rapid price pullbacks for Bitcoin throughout the year. Market dynamics are also being influenced by Bitcoin whales—investors holding large amounts of Bitcoin—who have been offloading portions of their assets, consequently stalling price rallies even as positive regulatory developments emerge. Despite these sell-offs, analysts from Glassnode argue that this behavior aligns with typical patterns seen among long-term investors during the concluding stages of bull markets, suggesting it is not indicative of a mass exodus. Notably, Bitcoin is not alone in its struggles, as Ethereum and Solana have also recorded declines of 7.95% and 28.3%, respectively, since the start of the year, while numerous altcoins have faced even steeper losses. Looking ahead, questions linger regarding the viability of the four-year cycle thesis, particularly given the increasing institutional support and regulatory frameworks now in place in the crypto landscape. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, remains optimistic, suggesting a potential Bitcoin resurgence in 2026 driven by the “debasement trade” thesis and a broader trend toward increased adoption of stablecoins, tokenization, and decentralized finance. Hougan emphasized the soundness of the underlying fundamentals, pointing to a positive outlook for the sector in the longer term.
placeholder
Silver Price Forecasts: XAG/USD drops below $75.00 after Trump - Zelenkyy’s meeting Silver (XAG/USD) has lost more than $10 since hitting a fresh record high near $86.00 on Monday’s early trading. The precious metal has retreated to levels in the $74.00 area at the time of writing, weighed by comments by US President Trump about the chances of a peace deal in Ukraine.
Author  FXStreet
Dec 29, 2025
Silver (XAG/USD) has lost more than $10 since hitting a fresh record high near $86.00 on Monday’s early trading. The precious metal has retreated to levels in the $74.00 area at the time of writing, weighed by comments by US President Trump about the chances of a peace deal in Ukraine.
placeholder
Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD struggles to extend recovery above 20-day EMAGold price (XAU/USD) is down 0.8% to near $4,140 during the European trading session on Monday. The precious metal faces selling pressure as the three-day rally hits a pause after failing to extend above $4,202.
Author  FXStreet
20 hours ago
Gold price (XAU/USD) is down 0.8% to near $4,140 during the European trading session on Monday. The precious metal faces selling pressure as the three-day rally hits a pause after failing to extend above $4,202.
Related Instrument
goTop
quote