Metals: Market is weighing the outlook for the year – ING
Source Fxstreet
Industrial metals have had a muted start to 2025 with the market weighing the outlook for the year amid geopolitical tensions, the uncertain path for China’s economic recovery and rising protectionism, ING’s commodity analyst Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.
US tariffs and a stronger USD can depress industrial metals prices
“The US election has further complicated the outlook for the complex with a threat of tariffs on Chinese goods looming over the market. Industrial metals all fell after Trump on Monday denied a report that his team was planning weaker import tariffs than those announced during his presidential campaign. We believe that potential US tariffs and a stronger dollar could further depress industrial metals prices.”
“Requests to withdraw aluminum from LME warehouses rose by 42,850 tons to 380,050 tons , the highest since 7 October 2024. The majority of cancellations were reported in Malaysia’s Port Klang warehouses.”
“Meanwhile, exchange inventories for aluminum fell by 2,500 tons to 624,275 tons (the lowest since 9 May 2024), while on-warrant inventories decreased by 45,350 tons to 244,225 tons as of yesterday.”
Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Recommended Articles
Gold ends three-week slide at the $4,400 line — eight straight days of ETF inflows vs a 5% 10-year and a 100 dollarSpot gold closed Friday at $4,378.39, up 0.84% on the day and about 0.8% for the week — its first weekly gain in four weeks — with the intraday high of $4,399.67 leaving it 33 cents shy of the $4,400 line. Gold ETFs have now logged eight straight sessions of inflows, but with the 10-year back above 5% and the dollar index near 100, here is what decides whether this is a reversal or a bounce.
Spot gold closed Friday at $4,378.39, up 0.84% on the day and about 0.8% for the week — its first weekly gain in four weeks — with the intraday high of $4,399.67 leaving it 33 cents shy of the $4,400 line. Gold ETFs have now logged eight straight sessions of inflows, but with the 10-year back above 5% and the dollar index near 100, here is what decides whether this is a reversal or a bounce.
October hike odds climb toward 60% as Goldman and BofA both flip — what Warsh's "dose of accommodation" really changedRate futures now price roughly 55% to 62% for a 25bp hike at the October 27-28 FOMC, up from about 30% before Chair Warsh's post-meeting framing that the Fed is merely "removing some accommodation." Goldman Sachs has added an October hike to its forecast and Bank of America now sees moves in both October and December. Here is the repricing, the language behind it, and the two data points that decide it.
Rate futures now price roughly 55% to 62% for a 25bp hike at the October 27-28 FOMC, up from about 30% before Chair Warsh's post-meeting framing that the Fed is merely "removing some accommodation." Goldman Sachs has added an October hike to its forecast and Bank of America now sees moves in both October and December. Here is the repricing, the language behind it, and the two data points that decide it.
US input costs rose at the fastest pace in four years — the September flash PMI beat is an inflation story, not a growth storyUS September flash PMIs came in far above expectations, with the composite at 58.4, a five-year high. But the detail that moved markets was input cost inflation at its fastest since October 2022, driven by fuel, transport and supply shortages. Brent is back above $100 and the 10-year Treasury yield has hit its highest since 2007.
US September flash PMIs came in far above expectations, with the composite at 58.4, a five-year high. But the detail that moved markets was input cost inflation at its fastest since October 2022, driven by fuel, transport and supply shortages. Brent is back above $100 and the 10-year Treasury yield has hit its highest since 2007.
Brent edges toward $99 as Trump rejects Iran's Hormuz proposal — why the war-risk premium won't rebuildBrent crude rose 0.92% to $98.51 and WTI gained 1.15% to $93.51 after President Trump rejected Iran's seven-day proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. But both benchmarks remain about 12% below their early-September highs, because supply never actually stopped. Hormuz flows ran at 33.7 million barrels this week, in line with the prior week, and Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline restarted on September 22.
Brent crude rose 0.92% to $98.51 and WTI gained 1.15% to $93.51 after President Trump rejected Iran's seven-day proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. But both benchmarks remain about 12% below their early-September highs, because supply never actually stopped. Hormuz flows ran at 33.7 million barrels this week, in line with the prior week, and Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline restarted on September 22.
Four jobs reports in five days: what JOLTS, ADP, claims and the September payrolls mean for the October Fed decisionThe US labour market faces its densest data week of the month. JOLTS job openings land Tuesday (7.2 million expected), ADP on Wednesday (70,000 expected), initial claims on Thursday and the September non-farm payrolls on Friday (100,000 expected, down from 162,000). Markets price a 64%-70% chance of another quarter-point Fed hike on October 28. The dollar index sits at 100.77 and the S&P 500 at 7,729.8.
The US labour market faces its densest data week of the month. JOLTS job openings land Tuesday (7.2 million expected), ADP on Wednesday (70,000 expected), initial claims on Thursday and the September non-farm payrolls on Friday (100,000 expected, down from 162,000). Markets price a 64%-70% chance of another quarter-point Fed hike on October 28. The dollar index sits at 100.77 and the S&P 500 at 7,729.8.
