Metals: Market is weighing the outlook for the year – ING

Industrial metals have had a muted start to 2025 with the market weighing the outlook for the year amid geopolitical tensions, the uncertain path for China’s economic recovery and rising protectionism, ING’s commodity analyst Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

US tariffs and a stronger USD can depress industrial metals prices

“The US election has further complicated the outlook for the complex with a threat of tariffs on Chinese goods looming over the market. Industrial metals all fell after Trump on Monday denied a report that his team was planning weaker import tariffs than those announced during his presidential campaign. We believe that potential US tariffs and a stronger dollar could further depress industrial metals prices.”

“Requests to withdraw aluminum from LME warehouses rose by 42,850 tons to 380,050 tons , the highest since 7 October 2024. The majority of cancellations were reported in Malaysia’s Port Klang warehouses.”

“Meanwhile, exchange inventories for aluminum fell by 2,500 tons to 624,275 tons (the lowest since 9 May 2024), while on-warrant inventories decreased by 45,350 tons to 244,225 tons as of yesterday.”