Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD advances to near $31.00 as looming Fed policy decision

Source Fxstreet
  • Silver price extends its upside due to rising expectations of an aggressive rate cut by the Fed.
  • The demand for dollar-denominated Silver gains attraction as it becomes cheaper for buyers using other currencies.
  • Markets assess demand prospects in China, given that Silver is crucial for a range of industrial applications.

Silver price (XAG/USD) continues its winning streak that began on September 9, trading around $31.00 per Troy ounce during Monday’s Asian session. The non-yielding Silver extends its upside due to growing speculation that the US Federal Reserve will opt for a jumbo 50 basis points rate cut at its upcoming monetary policy meeting.

The demand for Silver is gaining traction due to a weaker US Dollar (USD), driven by lower Treasury yields. As Silver is a dollar-denominated commodity, it becomes cheaper for buyers using other currencies, which helps support increased demand for the precious metal.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against its six major peers, trades around 100.81 with 2-year and 10-year yields on US Treasury bonds standing at 3.58% and 3.65%, respectively, at the time of writing.

The market is divided over the scale of the rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) on Wednesday. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets anticipate 41.0% odds of a 25 basis point (bps) rate cut by the Fed at its September meeting. The likelihood of a 50 bps rate cut has increased to 59.0%, up from 50.0% a day ago.

Additionally, markets are evaluating demand prospects in China after mixed economic indicators. Silver is essential in various industrial applications, such as electronics, solar panels, and automotive components. Given China's status as one of the world's largest manufacturing hubs, the country's industrial demand for Silver is significant.

Silver FAQs

Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
placeholder
Big Tech's $800 billion AI bill faces its first real test — free cash flow is the judgeAlphabet and Microsoft report after the close on October 28, Amazon on October 29, with hyperscaler AI capex running near $800 billion a year. Meta's negative free cash flow and 9.40% drop on October 22 was the warning; this week's prints decide whether cloud growth and backlog can pay for the buildout. Here are the consensus numbers, the free-cash-flow table and the two-sided test.
Author  Irene Q.
Oct 26, Mon
Alphabet and Microsoft report after the close on October 28, Amazon on October 29, with hyperscaler AI capex running near $800 billion a year. Meta's negative free cash flow and 9.40% drop on October 22 was the warning; this week's prints decide whether cloud growth and backlog can pay for the buildout. Here are the consensus numbers, the free-cash-flow table and the two-sided test.
placeholder
Anthropic files for a $2 trillion IPO — the $80.7 billion loss is the decoy, the $450 billion compute bill is the riskAnthropic publicly filed its S-1 on October 26, revealing $16.29 billion of first-half revenue (+1,304% year over year) and a $80.7 billion net loss — of which $72.4 billion is a non-cash convertible-note charge. The real number is the $450 billion of signed, mostly non-cancelable compute commitments. Here is what the filing says, why NVDA, ARM and MU are the tradeable read-through, and the conditions that decide whether the AI trade passes its first public valuation test.
Author  Irene Q.
Oct 27, Tue
Anthropic publicly filed its S-1 on October 26, revealing $16.29 billion of first-half revenue (+1,304% year over year) and a $80.7 billion net loss — of which $72.4 billion is a non-cash convertible-note charge. The real number is the $450 billion of signed, mostly non-cancelable compute commitments. Here is what the filing says, why NVDA, ARM and MU are the tradeable read-through, and the conditions that decide whether the AI trade passes its first public valuation test.
placeholder
Fed October Rate Decision Preview: Rate Hike Pause Has Become Consensus, How Will US Stocks, Dollar, and Gold React?The Federal Reserve will announce its October interest rate decision at 14:00 Eastern Time on October 28, and Fed Chair Warsh will hold a press conference at 14:30. Markets currently wide
Author  TradingKey
Oct 27, Tue
The Federal Reserve will announce its October interest rate decision at 14:00 Eastern Time on October 28, and Fed Chair Warsh will hold a press conference at 14:30. Markets currently wide
placeholder
Bitcoin is back above $80,000 — but 75% of the bounce was shorts, not buyersBitcoin trades at $80,669, back above the $80,000 line after touching $79,145 on October 24. But 75.4% of the last 24 hours of futures liquidations were shorts, CME open interest fell 36,545 BTC in October, and spot ETFs lost $773.5 million on October 22-23. Price is up; positioning is down. Here is why the bounce is a squeeze, and the four things that would make it real.
Author  Suzie
Yesterday 05: 54
Bitcoin trades at $80,669, back above the $80,000 line after touching $79,145 on October 24. But 75.4% of the last 24 hours of futures liquidations were shorts, CME open interest fell 36,545 BTC in October, and spot ETFs lost $773.5 million on October 22-23. Price is up; positioning is down. Here is why the bounce is a squeeze, and the four things that would make it real.
placeholder
Brent's $115 front month sits $4.6 above January — the $14 spread to WTI is the supply-risk premiumDecember Brent trades at $115.29 while January is $110.71, a $4.58 backwardation. The December Brent-WTI spread is $14.2, versus a $3-5 normal. That gap, not the headline, is where the Middle East supply risk is priced. Here is what the curve says, why the December contract's expiry on October 30 will mechanically cut the headline by $4.6, and the 108.81 neckline that decides the next move.
Author  Irene Q.
23 hours ago
December Brent trades at $115.29 while January is $110.71, a $4.58 backwardation. The December Brent-WTI spread is $14.2, versus a $3-5 normal. That gap, not the headline, is where the Middle East supply risk is priced. Here is what the curve says, why the December contract's expiry on October 30 will mechanically cut the headline by $4.6, and the 108.81 neckline that decides the next move.
Related Instrument
goTop
quote