Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD advances despite rising US yields as bears take a breather

Source Fxstreet
  • The XAU/USD trades at $2,030 seeing gains of 0.43%.
  • Key indicators on the daily chart signal that the bears are catching their breath after last week's strong movements.
  • The four-hour chart outlook suggests potential upward bias, with a positive RSI incline and MACD's green bars.

On Tuesday's session, the Gold spot price XAU/USD was spotted trading at $2,030, reflecting a 0.43% gain, as the bears are taking a breather after last week's notable 2% loss. The daily chart presents a neutral-to-bearish sentiment with the bears while, the four-hour indicators are slightly tilted to the upside, suggesting an imminent potential shift in momentum.

Fundamentally speaking, strong US economic data and hawkish sentiments from the Federal Reserve (Fed) have led to significant selling of metals, causing doubts about an impending Fed rate-cutting cycle. In that sense, as markets start to adjust their bets on the Fed, the upside potential for the metal is capped, as it is causing US yields, often seen as the cost of holding non-yielding metals to rise.

XAU/USD technical levels

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is flat on the negative side. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) displays an equivalently flat activity with negative red bars evidencing bearish sentiment. Despite this, the metal continues to cling just below the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), while managing to remain above the 100 and 200-day SMAs. The maintaining of a position above the longer-term SMAs underscores a ruling bullish perspective in a broader sense, even amidst the bearish undertones polarizing the immediate scenario, particularly after a 2% loss last week.

Zooming into the four-hour timeframe, the momentum subtly changes. The same indicators remain flat, albeit with a small bias towards a buying sentiment. As per the Relative Strength Index (RSI), it shows positive slope taking place within the positive domain. Concurrently, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reflects a stationary display of red bars.

XAU/USD daily chart

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
placeholder
US August CPI lands tonight: after a 5.4% PPI shock, will the Fed hike on September 16?US August PPI came in at 5.4% year-on-year, above the 5.3% consensus, with core PPI at 4.6%. Traders have pushed the odds of a 25bp Fed hike on September 15-16 to around 70%. Tonight's CPI is the last major inflation print before the decision — here is the full calendar, the consensus numbers, and what a hot versus cool reading would mean for the dollar, yields, gold and stocks.
Author  Irene Q.
Sep 11, Fri
US August PPI came in at 5.4% year-on-year, above the 5.3% consensus, with core PPI at 4.6%. Traders have pushed the odds of a 25bp Fed hike on September 15-16 to around 70%. Tonight's CPI is the last major inflation print before the decision — here is the full calendar, the consensus numbers, and what a hot versus cool reading would mean for the dollar, yields, gold and stocks.
placeholder
Brent tests $108 as a key export pipeline stays shut — can the rally clear $110?Brent crude rose 2.55% to $106.97 and WTI 2.32% to $102.30 as a major regional export pipeline remained offline with no restart timeline. Front-month backwardation has widened to $5.53 from $3.84 a week ago, European gas is at its highest since December 2022, and one analyst sees $119.48 if talks stall.
Author  Irene Q.
Sep 14, Mon
Brent crude rose 2.55% to $106.97 and WTI 2.32% to $102.30 as a major regional export pipeline remained offline with no restart timeline. Front-month backwardation has widened to $5.53 from $3.84 a week ago, European gas is at its highest since December 2022, and one analyst sees $119.48 if talks stall.
placeholder
Fed hike odds near 90% into Wednesday's decision — how to trade the dollar, gold and the S&P 500A 0.3% monthly core CPI print has lifted the market-implied probability of a 25bp Fed hike on 16 September to roughly 86.5% ~ 90%, which would be the first increase since July 2023. Here is the decision timeline, the pricing versus the forecasts, both scenarios, and the key levels for the dollar, gold and the S&P 500.
Author  Suzie
Sep 14, Mon
A 0.3% monthly core CPI print has lifted the market-implied probability of a 25bp Fed hike on 16 September to roughly 86.5% ~ 90%, which would be the first increase since July 2023. Here is the decision timeline, the pricing versus the forecasts, both scenarios, and the key levels for the dollar, gold and the S&P 500.
placeholder
Gold falls below $4,300 as higher US yields bolster Fed rate hike betsGold price (XAU/USD) tumbles to near $4,295 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The precious metal faces some selling pressure as rising bond yields and surging energy prices strengthen expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise interest rates this week. 
Author  FXStreet
Yesterday 01: 23
Gold price (XAU/USD) tumbles to near $4,295 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The precious metal faces some selling pressure as rising bond yields and surging energy prices strengthen expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise interest rates this week. 
placeholder
【Daily Brief】10-year Treasury yield briefly tops 5%, S&P 500 slips to 7,602 and the dollar firms at 99.3 as the Fed's decision eve beginsThe 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.014% on Monday — its first print above 5% since October 2023 — while the S&P 500 closed 0.48% lower at 7,619.98 and the dollar index firmed to 99.3. Here is the full market wrap ahead of Wednesday's FOMC decision, the dot plot and the August retail sales report, plus today's CLARITY Act Senate vote.
Author  Irene Q.
Yesterday 08: 16
The 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.014% on Monday — its first print above 5% since October 2023 — while the S&P 500 closed 0.48% lower at 7,619.98 and the dollar index firmed to 99.3. Here is the full market wrap ahead of Wednesday's FOMC decision, the dot plot and the August retail sales report, plus today's CLARITY Act Senate vote.
Related Instrument
goTop
quote