WTI edges lower below $77.50 on slowing global demand and easing fears of wider Middle East conflicts
- WTI trades in negative territory near $77.20 in Wednesday’s Asian session.
- Less fears of a wider Middle East war and slowing global demand concerns undermine the WTI price.
- API reported a significant fall in US crude inventories last week.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $77.20 on Wednesday. WTI price edges lower on the back of easing fears of a wider Middle East war and concerns about the strength of global oil demand.
The ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could raise the fear of crude oil supply disruptions from a leading oil-producing region, but the wider war seemed less likely as Iran suggested renewed cease-fire talks with Hamas could prevent retaliation.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasted that growth in crude oil demand would slow as the summer US driving season ended in the coming weeks, and be further covered when planned production increases hit the market later this year. Meanwhile, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) lowered its prediction for global oil demand growth in 2024, citing weaker-than-expected data from the first half of the year and less optimism for the Chinese economy.
The US crude inventories declined significantly last week. According to the American Petroleum Institute (API), crude oil stockpiles in the United States for the week ending August 9 fell by 5.205 million barrels, compared to an increase of 0.18 million barrels in the previous week. The market consensus estimated that stocks would decline by 2.0 million barrels.
On the other hand, the expectation of the interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) might boost the black gold. Traders anticipate a 25 basis point (bps) rate cut in September, followed by similar reductions in November and December. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said on Tuesday that recent economic data made him "more confident" that the Fed can get inflation back to its 2% target. Still, more evidence is needed before he's ready to support lowering interest rates. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July, which is due on Wednesday, will be closely monitored and could offer some hints about the interest rate outlook.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 13 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
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