Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD plunges to near $22 as Fed rate-cut optimism fades

Source Fxstreet
  • Silver price plummets to near $22 as the Fed is expected to reduce interest rates from May.
  • The USD Index struggles for a firm-footing despite easing Fed rate-cut bets.
  • Silver price declines further towards $21.88.

Silver price (XAG/USD) nosedived to near $22.00 on Monday, more than 2.5% down from its previous close. The white metal is heavily dumped by the market participants as trades dialled back expectations of early rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed).

The S&P500 is expected to open on a positive note, considering positive cues from the overnight futures. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is also facing pressure despite investors have postponed their expectations of rate cut from Fed to May. 10-year US Treasury yields have dropped further to near 4.09%.

The CME Fedwatch tool indicates that investors are now anticipating an interest rate cut in May as price pressures are still stubborn due to robust households’ spending and upbeat labor market conditions.

This week, market participants will focus on the United States Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data, which will be published on Thursday. An upbeat GDP data would underscore the ‘higher interest rates’ narrative. Fed policymakers have been considering early rate cuts as premature that could dampen all efforts yet don to tame price pressures.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price witnesses an intense sell-off after delivering a breakdown of the horizontal support plotted from December 13 low at $22.51. The asset is expected to find an interim support near November 13 low at $21.88. The 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $22.80 continues to act as a barricade for the Silver price bulls.

The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) has shifted into the bearish range of 20.00-40.00, which indicates that a downside momentum has been triggered.

Silver four-hour chart

 

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
placeholder
US dollar clings to nine-week lows near 98.4 as Brent nears $100 and the yen hits a seven-month high — five events to watch todayThe dollar is pinned near nine-week lows even after a blockbuster jobs report, as an oil spike toward $100, a surging yen and China's reflation data crowd the driver's seat. Five key events to watch today: Brent at $99.46, USD/JPY at 154, China CPI/PPI, PBOC gold buying, and Thursday's PPI / Friday's CPI ahead of the September 15-16 FOMC.
Author  Eric Nkando
Sep 09, Wed
The dollar is pinned near nine-week lows even after a blockbuster jobs report, as an oil spike toward $100, a surging yen and China's reflation data crowd the driver's seat. Five key events to watch today: Brent at $99.46, USD/JPY at 154, China CPI/PPI, PBOC gold buying, and Thursday's PPI / Friday's CPI ahead of the September 15-16 FOMC.
placeholder
US August CPI lands tonight: after a 5.4% PPI shock, will the Fed hike on September 16?US August PPI came in at 5.4% year-on-year, above the 5.3% consensus, with core PPI at 4.6%. Traders have pushed the odds of a 25bp Fed hike on September 15-16 to around 70%. Tonight's CPI is the last major inflation print before the decision — here is the full calendar, the consensus numbers, and what a hot versus cool reading would mean for the dollar, yields, gold and stocks.
Author  Irene Q.
Sep 11, Fri
US August PPI came in at 5.4% year-on-year, above the 5.3% consensus, with core PPI at 4.6%. Traders have pushed the odds of a 25bp Fed hike on September 15-16 to around 70%. Tonight's CPI is the last major inflation print before the decision — here is the full calendar, the consensus numbers, and what a hot versus cool reading would mean for the dollar, yields, gold and stocks.
placeholder
Brent tests $108 as a key export pipeline stays shut — can the rally clear $110?Brent crude rose 2.55% to $106.97 and WTI 2.32% to $102.30 as a major regional export pipeline remained offline with no restart timeline. Front-month backwardation has widened to $5.53 from $3.84 a week ago, European gas is at its highest since December 2022, and one analyst sees $119.48 if talks stall.
Author  Irene Q.
17 hours ago
Brent crude rose 2.55% to $106.97 and WTI 2.32% to $102.30 as a major regional export pipeline remained offline with no restart timeline. Front-month backwardation has widened to $5.53 from $3.84 a week ago, European gas is at its highest since December 2022, and one analyst sees $119.48 if talks stall.
placeholder
Fed hike odds near 90% into Wednesday's decision — how to trade the dollar, gold and the S&P 500A 0.3% monthly core CPI print has lifted the market-implied probability of a 25bp Fed hike on 16 September to roughly 86.5% ~ 90%, which would be the first increase since July 2023. Here is the decision timeline, the pricing versus the forecasts, both scenarios, and the key levels for the dollar, gold and the S&P 500.
Author  Suzie
17 hours ago
A 0.3% monthly core CPI print has lifted the market-implied probability of a 25bp Fed hike on 16 September to roughly 86.5% ~ 90%, which would be the first increase since July 2023. Here is the decision timeline, the pricing versus the forecasts, both scenarios, and the key levels for the dollar, gold and the S&P 500.
placeholder
Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD falls to near $63.50 amid Fed hike bets, higher oil pricesSilver price (XAG/USD) loses its gains from the previous day, trading around $63.50 per troy ounce during Asian hours on Monday. Non-yielding Silver is currently facing significant headwinds driven by rising Federal Reserve (Fed) rate-hike expectations for the upcoming September decision.
Author  FXStreet
14 hours ago
Silver price (XAG/USD) loses its gains from the previous day, trading around $63.50 per troy ounce during Asian hours on Monday. Non-yielding Silver is currently facing significant headwinds driven by rising Federal Reserve (Fed) rate-hike expectations for the upcoming September decision.
goTop
quote